
OptionProbability
Reuse a booster by end of 2025/06 June 2025
Reuse a booster by end of 2025/09 September 2025
Reuse a booster by end of 2025/12 December 2025
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2028/06 i.e. June 2028
02 Deploy satellites to full orbit by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2028/03 i.e. Mar 2028
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/12 i.e. Dec 2027
02 Deploy satellites to full orbit by end of 2026/11 i.e. Nov 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2028/06 i.e. June 2028
05 Recover starship by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/10 i.e. Oct 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/11 i.e. Nov 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
02 Deploy satellites to full orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/09 i.e. Sep 2027
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2028/03 i.e. Mar 2028
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2027/06 i.e. Jun 2027
02 Deploy satellites to full orbit by end of 2026/10 i.e. Oct 2026
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2028/03 i.e. Mar 2028
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2027/12 i.e. Dec 2027
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2027/09 i.e. Sep 2027
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2028/03 i.e. Mar 2028
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/11 i.e. Nov 2026
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2027/06 i.e. June 2027
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/12 i.e. Dec 2027
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/06 i.e. Jun 2027
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2027/12 i.e. Dec 2027
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/10 i.e. Oct 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/09 i.e.Sep 2027
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2027/09 i.e. Sep 2027
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/06 i.e.June 2027
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2027/06 i.e. Jun 2027
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026
02 Deploy satellites to full orbit by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026
Reach orbit by end of 2024
Reach orbit by end of January 2025
Reach orbit by end of February 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/03 March 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/04 April 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/05 May 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2024
Deploy satellites by end of January 2025
Deploy satellites by end of February 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/3 March 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/4 April 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/5 May 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/3 March 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/4 April 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/5 May 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/06 June 2025
Recover starship by end of 2025/07 July 2025
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
Reach orbit by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026
Deploy satellites by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025
Reach orbit by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025
01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025
05 Recover starship by end of 2025/08 i.e. August 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
05 Recover starship by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025
01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025
05 Recover starship by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026
08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025
05 Recover starship by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026
06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/11 i.e.Nov 2025
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/01 i.e.Jan 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/04 i.e. April 2026
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026
05 Recover starship by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026
01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026
02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026
04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/07 i.e. July 2026
100
100
100
100
100
100
91
85
81
76
76
71
59
59
58
57
56
55
55
54
54
53
52
51
47
46
44
43
43
42
40
38
38
34
34
33
33
28
28
26
22
21
21
20
16
13
12
12
12
11
10
6
4
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Luna (Earth's Moon)
Cape Canaveral, Florida (any pad)
Boca Chica, Texas, Pad A (east pad)
Boca Chica, Texas, Pab B (west pad)
Vandenberg Space Force Base, California (any pad)
Ocean platform (any site)
Other
Mars
65
13
6
6
3
3
3
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
157
64

