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Boca Chica News

    Prediction markets for Boca Chica

    Starship milestone dates megamarket

    Oct 15, 11:20 PMDec 30, 8:59 PM
    5254692

    OptionProbability

    Reuse a booster by end of 2025/06 June 2025

    Reuse a booster by end of 2025/09 September 2025

    Reuse a booster by end of 2025/12 December 2025

    03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/07 i.e. Jul 2026

    05 Recover starship by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

    03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026

    03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

    04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

    03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

    06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

    05 Recover starship by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

    04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

    03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

    07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/06 i.e. Jun 2027

    09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

    08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/09 i.e.Sep 2027

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026

    06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

    10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/06 i.e. Jun 2026

    09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

    07 Reuse a starship by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

    04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

    05 Recover starship by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

    10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

    03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026

    08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/06 i.e.June 2027

    09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/05 i.e. May 2026

    10 A specific booster third launch by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/04 i.e. Apr 2026

    09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/04 i.e. April 2026

    08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2027/03 i.e. Mar 2027

    07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

    04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

    08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/12 i.e. Dec 2026

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

    09 A specific booster second catch by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026

    07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

    06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/09 i.e. Sep 2026

    05 Recover starship by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/02 i.e. Feb 2026

    06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

    06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

    06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2026/03 i.e. Mar 2026

    07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026

    04 Catch booster on different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

    08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2026/03 i.e. March 2026

    03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026

    05 Recover starship by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026

    07 Reuse a starship by end of 2026/06 i.e. June 2026

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2026/01 i.e.Jan 2026

    03 Launch from a different tower by end of 2026/01 i.e. Jan 2026

    Reach orbit by end of 2024

    Reach orbit by end of January 2025

    Reach orbit by end of February 2025

    Reach orbit by end of 2025/03 March 2025

    Reach orbit by end of 2025/04 April 2025

    Reach orbit by end of 2025/05 May 2025

    Deploy satellites by end of 2024

    Deploy satellites by end of January 2025

    Deploy satellites by end of February 2025

    Deploy satellites by end of 2025/3 March 2025

    Deploy satellites by end of 2025/4 April 2025

    Deploy satellites by end of 2025/5 May 2025

    Recover starship by end of 2025/3 March 2025

    Recover starship by end of 2025/4 April 2025

    Recover starship by end of 2025/5 May 2025

    Recover starship by end of 2025/06 June 2025

    Recover starship by end of 2025/07 July 2025

    07 Reuse a starship by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

    07 Reuse a starship by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

    06 Refuel a starship in orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

    Reach orbit by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025

    Deploy satellites by end of 2025/06 i.e. June 2025

    Deploy satellites by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025

    Reach orbit by end of 2025/07 i.e. July 2025

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/08 i.e. Aug 2025

    05 Recover starship by end of 2025/08 i.e. August 2025

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

    05 Recover starship by end of 2025/09 i.e. Sep 2025

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025

    05 Recover starship by end of 2025/10 i.e. Oct 2025

    08 Catch Starship on 2 different towers by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

    01 Reach orbit by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025

    05 Recover starship by end of 2025/12 i.e. Dec 2025

    05 Recover starship by end of 2025/11 i.e. Nov 2025

    02 Deploy satellites by end of 2025/11 i.e.Nov 2025

    100

    100

    100

    88

    79

    78

    76

    69

    62

    59

    58

    55

    53

    50

    47

    47

    46

    45

    43

    42

    42

    41

    40

    33

    33

    33

    31

    30

    30

    25

    24

    24

    24

    21

    21

    17

    15

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    8

    8

    6

    4

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Where will the first crewed Starship landing happen?

    Dec 16, 4:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    71274

    OptionProbability

    Luna (Earth's Moon)

    Cape Canaveral, Florida (any pad)

    Boca Chica, Texas, Pab B (west pad)

    Boca Chica, Texas, Pad A (east pad)

    Other

    Vandenberg Space Force Base, California (any pad)

    Ocean platform (any site)

    Mars

    56

    17

    8

    7

    4

    3

    3

    2

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