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Prediction markets for Carrington
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
90
80
78
72
71
44
43
41
40
38
37
37
31
21
17
15
13
12
12
11
10
9
5
5
2
2
2
2
0
If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, what percent of the US population would still be alive after 6 months?
May 31, 7:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM
266576
OptionProbability
8
5
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
1078
882
If another Carrington Event happens, will I be able to resolve this?
Jun 12, 8:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
69.71%chance
141561
OptionVotes
1517
659
How many billions of dollars would it cost the US to make the next Carrington Event not cause societal collapse?
Jun 1, 3:04 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM
191491
OptionProbability
6
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will a Carrington-like event solar storm hit Earth before 2030?
Mar 19, 11:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
10.14%chance
12995
OptionVotes
1521
905
If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, would most Manifold users still be alive in a year?
Jun 3, 12:31 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM
71.04%chance
11918
OptionVotes
1566
638
If another Carrington Event hit the US, would most people be using electricity again in less than a week?
Jun 3, 6:34 PMJun 4, 6:59 AM
56.16%chance
17891
OptionVotes
1132
884
Will $10 million be spent on hardening US infrastructure from EMP/CME before 2028?
May 25, 10:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
50.28%chance
12595
OptionVotes
3648
3335
Will a solar storm at least as powerful as the Carrington Event hit Earth before superintelligence is created?
Feb 29, 12:57 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
29.94%chance
21515
OptionVotes
1193
896
If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?
Dec 29, 11:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
81.84%chance
10354
OptionVotes
1018
808
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