Cascades News

Red Flag Warnings From June to July Cover California, Nevada, Utah With Gusty Winds Up to 60 MPH and Thunderstorm Fire Risks

1 month ago

"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?

Jul 19, 10:35 PMDec 31, 10:24 PM

9.98%chance

13158142

OptionVotes

YES

30027

3330

Spain's Power Outage Cause Bingo

Apr 29, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

5511624

OptionProbability

Cascading failure (like something went wrong and the recovery procedure had an issue that made it worse)

Loss of synchronism

Strain on electrical/transmission infrastructure principally caused by renewable energy sources

Low or insufficient inertia

Battery storage

Renewables made the grid less stable

Never found root cause

Accidental infrastructure damage (fallen tower, wildlife, etc)

Bad weather

The cause didn't originate in Spain (was propagated by EU grid)

Intended infrastructure damage (cable cut, bomb, etc)

It's declared a cyber attack

Cyber attack & Russia-funded

Cyber attack & independent group

"Intern plugged wrong cable"

Cyber attack & USA-funded

Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?

Aug 9, 6:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.52%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

2248

445

Juggling megamarket

Jan 4, 12:48 AMJan 11, 9:59 PM

41369

OptionProbability

Someone qualifies 12 balls in 2025

Eivind Dragsjo wins the 2025 Numbers Juggling League

At least 5 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025

Someone flashes 14 balls in 2025

Someone performs the trick f4444444444, from and to a cascade, before the end of 2026 (similarly to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42LOiJE5yLg)

Someone flashes 15 balls before the end of 2027

Someone flashes 10 clubs in 2025

At least 10 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025

The European Juggling Convention 2025 is cancelled

100

Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?

Oct 21, 8:48 PMOct 29, 3:59 AM

20%chance

15635

OptionVotes

YES

1003

798

Will the Cascadia subduction zone experience a Megathrust earthquake before 2050?

Sep 6, 6:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.84%chance

12301

OptionVotes

YES

220

157

Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?

Jun 22, 5:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.65%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

120

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

Apr 6, 2:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

461

OptionProbability

X-risk that can wipe out the human species in a short-timespan due to conscious/planning machine intelligence

X-risk that can wipe out the human species due to cascading effects without any central plan/conscious intent (potential for resistance but insufficient)

Events creating a global war-scale event that the human species can survive but with losses in the millions or at most billions

Cascading effects (y-risk)* that can threaten millions of lives but can be reeled in** due to dynamics/buffers preventing x-risk territory being viable?

Will a Cascade volcano erupt in the next 10 years?

Nov 12, 12:13 AMNov 12, 6:59 AM

48.29%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

222

196

Exit valuation of Cascading AI (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Will Lada Nuzhna visit Cascadia (Washington/Oregon/British Columbia) by EOY2030?

Jul 30, 3:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will windsurf OR cursor sync up cascade memories BETWEEN computers by EOY2026

Jan 26, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

OptionVotes

YES

105

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Prediction markets for Cascades

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Prediction markets for Cascades

"Massive anti-AI preference cascade based on xrisk" by end of 2025?

Spain's Power Outage Cause Bingo

Will Kessler Syndrome (cascading collisions of orbital debris) be observed before 2030?

Juggling megamarket

Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?

Will the Cascadia subduction zone experience a Megathrust earthquake before 2050?

Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?

What do you believe is the upper threshold of harm that AI/machine systems could cause this century (w/ 1-99% threat)?

Will a Cascade volcano erupt in the next 10 years?

Exit valuation of Cascading AI (YC S23)?

Will Lada Nuzhna visit Cascadia (Washington/Oregon/British Columbia) by EOY2030?

Will windsurf OR cursor sync up cascade memories BETWEEN computers by EOY2026

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