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Prediction markets for Dare
Will the U.S. presidency still exist until each of these years' elections?
Dec 13, 4:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
192234
OptionProbability
100
87
86
84
83
82
81
79
78
How much incest will there be in the new Game of Thrones book (Winds of Winter)?
Aug 2, 9:33 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
11.95%chance
242053
OptionProbability
1269
922
Does Manifold "agree" with the following song lyrics (add your own)
Sep 29, 1:54 AMJan 28, 12:59 PM
181518
OptionProbability
94
88
80
76
74
74
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
41
41
31
26
19
17
OptionVotes
751
106
OptionProbability
90
4
3
3
OptionVotes
129
90
Will "Truth or Dare" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
May 30, 12:17 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.61%chance
17
OptionVotes
1007
958
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