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Prediction markets for DC

Will the FBI arrest a suspect for the January 5, 2021 DC pipe bomb incidents before January 5, 2026?

Sep 18, 1:15 PMJan 6, 4:59 AM

11.36%chance

93393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2794

358

Will there be a Marvel and DC Comics crossover movie released by the end of 2028?

May 8, 11:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.49%chance

111503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2370

498

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.75%chance

22858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

906

During the Trump presidency, will median home prices in Washington DC dip below 500k?

Nov 9, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.59%chance

9585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

844

If Trump wins, will multiple protestors die in Washington DC?

Mar 11, 3:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.46%chance

13458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

520

178

Ramzan Kadyrov visits and publicly appears in London, Paris, Berlin, New York or Washington DC before 2032

May 11, 7:15 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

9.28%chance

10402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

941

Will the 51st state be Washington DC?

May 3, 6:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.03%chance

22343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

962

Will Washington DC Become a state before Puerto Rico?

Apr 1, 3:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.67%chance

14259

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

978

Will Daylight Computers Release a second generation of the DC-1 tablet before 2028?

May 24, 6:43 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

58.84%chance

5201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

836

Will DC metro trains (all lines) have no staff onboard by 2035?

May 20, 12:33 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45%chance

491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will the DC Breeze make it to a Championship Weekend by 2027?

Jun 10, 2:55 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will "One Year in DC" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 11:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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