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Prediction markets for Eiffel Tower
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
29.63%chance
793419120
OptionVotes
25141
17457
Will the Eiffel Tower still be standing on June 30th, 2036?
Feb 7, 9:16 PMJun 30, 7:00 AM
95.64%chance
2918601
OptionVotes
1816
912
Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]
Apr 10, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
353628
OptionProbability
97
35
26
25
24
24
20
19
17
17
16
15
12
12
12
12
11
10
10
10
10
9
Which landmarks or major infrastructure will suffer a military or terrorist attack before the end of 2025? [ADD ANSWERS]
Apr 10, 10:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
262355
OptionProbability
99
34
33
18
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
7
5
3
3
Will Eiffel Tower be attacked by terrorists by the end of 2025?
Jan 19, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.48%chance
211305
OptionVotes
1462
922
Destruction of any of 14 famous world historical monuments through 2031
Aug 31, 5:18 PMJan 1, 6:07 PM
10.96%chance
9283
OptionVotes
426
179
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