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Prediction markets for El Volcán
Which countries will Donald Trump visit as the 47th President of the United States?
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
85
74
71
71
70
67
66
61
54
38
37
36
36
34
34
31
28
27
27
27
25
25
23
23
22
19
18
18
18
17
16
14
13
8
8
7
Who will win the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 2026 Senate election?
OptionProbability
58
27
12
3
1
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
OptionProbability
95
84
79
78
77
75
69
69
65
64
59
58
56
51
50
50
49
48
44
44
38
37
36
36
33
33
32
31
29
28
26
23
23
22
20
20
20
20
20
20
15
15
10
10
10
10
8
8
8
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
94
92
91
91
90
90
89
88
88
88
87
86
85
85
84
84
83
83
83
82
81
81
79
79
78
78
78
78
78
76
76
75
75
73
73
72
72
72
70
69
69
69
69
66
66
65
65
62
59
59
55
54
54
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
46
41
41
41
41
37
34
34
34
34
34
32
29
23
17
16
14
Which countries will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup from CONCACAF?
OptionProbability
100
100
100
36
21
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Which of these proposed crossings (bridge, tunnel or a combination) will be open by the end of 2050?
OptionProbability
70
69
69
69
69
63
63
59
59
51
50
41
31
28
25
20
20
20
20
14
13
3
What will be the first ten countries to do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
OptionProbability
87
70
69
66
62
56
52
51
50
50
48
47
45
45
43
40
39
35
28
17
OptionProbability
80
76
72
64
63
63
59
51
46
40
34
32
31
28
24
24
24
24
24
23
20
17
15
13
9
9
8
OptionProbability
80
75
68
65
64
60
56
54
50
44
39
38
35
32
19
Which of the following will be true by 2030? (Nayib Bukele Questions)
OptionProbability
60
53
20
19
What will be the first country to do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
OptionProbability
38
16
11
9
7
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
OptionProbability
65
50
50
50
50
48
45
45
40
37
32
30
27
20
15