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Erin News

    Prediction markets for Erin

    Erin Stock (Permanent)

    Nov 5, 8:16 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM
    44293258

    OptionProbability

    YES

    NO

    2070

    1794

    Who will be a UFC champion at some point?

    Mar 27, 6:07 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM
    2410721

    OptionProbability

    Merab Dvalishvili

    Belal Muhammad

    Jack Della Maddalena

    Khamzat Chimaev

    Magomed Ankalaev

    Kayla Harrison

    Steve Erceg

    Arman Tsarukyan

    Shavkat Rakhmonov

    Movsar Evloev

    Cory Sandhagen

    Benoît Saint Denis

    Rafael Fiziev

    Brendan Allen

    Jailton Almeida

    Arnold Allen

    Mateusz Gamrot

    Michael Page

    Amir Albazi

    Sean Brady

    Erin Blanchfield

    Maycee Barber

    Mayra Bueno Silva

    Ketlen Vieira

    Bo Nickal

    Manel Kape

    Diego Lopes

    Ian Machado Garry

    Ciryl Gane

    Aleksandar Rakić

    Tatiana Suarez

    Kai Kara-France

    Michael Chandler

    Josh Emmett

    Calvin Kattar

    Vicente Luque

    Jared Cannonier

    Johnny Walker

    Khalil Rountree Jr.

    Alexander Volkov

    Drew Dober

    Paulo Costa

    Beneil Dariush

    Sergei Pavlovich

    Bobby Green

    Marvin Vettori

    Brian Ortega

    Yan Xiaonan

    Curtis Blaydes

    Muhammad Mokaev

    Paul Craig

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    59

    52

    52

    50

    44

    44

    42

    42

    41

    40

    40

    37

    35

    35

    35

    35

    35

    35

    34

    32

    32

    28

    28

    26

    23

    22

    21

    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    17

    17

    16

    16

    14

    14

    13

    11

    8

    0

    0

    Who will be the next Governor of Minnesota?

    Jan 8, 10:39 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM
    111227

    OptionProbability

    Amy Klobuchar (DFL)

    Mike Lindell (R)

    Kendall Qualls (R)

    Lisa Demuth (R)

    Bill Gates Jr. (DFL)

    Steve Simon (DFL)

    Kelly Morrison (DFL)

    Erin Murphy (DFL)

    Keith Ellison (DFL)

    Scott Jensen (R)

    Kristin Robbins (R)

    Brad Kohler (R)

    Jeff Johnson (R)

    Chris Madel (R)

    Phillip Parrish (R)

    Tim Pawlenty (R)

    Tom Emmer (R)

    Pete Stauber (R)

    Mike Newcome (Independent)

    Jesse Ventura (Independent)

    Other

    84

    7

    4

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Ned Lamont

    Josh Elliott

    Other

    Luke Bronin

    Susan Bysiewicz

    Erin Stewart

    Heather Somers

    Bob Stefanowski

    74

    5

    5

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    207

    48

    OptionProbability

    At least one person who gets targeted by this rule will turn out to be cisgender / not trans (will N/A if nobody gets targeted)

    At least one bathroom incident in Kansas will be reported on social media (eg Bluesky) or news source

    Public sanctimony. Private indulgence. One or more of the architects are found to be hypocrites and engaging in projection, and are doxed revelling in flagrante delicto in the very non-normative intimacies they seek to criminalise.

    The bill will be vetoed by Gov. Laura Kelley or her office

    The bill will be (at least temporarily) halted by courts in 2026. (Resolves N/A if bill killed before taking effect.)

    The veto will be overridden by a 2/3 majority. (Resolves N/A if no veto)

    There are any social media or news reports of bathroom guards, inspections, or enforcement systems in Kansas in connection with gender

    At least one bathroom incident will be reported on social media or news source, and will lead to an attempted prosecution

    At least one bathroom incident will be reported on social media or news source, and lead to an attempted prosecution, that will lead to a bounty payout or settlement

    At least one person will have their government ID confiscated or revoked, as reported on social media or news

    We can find reporting that tourism in Kansas in 2026 will drop by at least 5%, and this bill is named as a potential contributor in that reporting

    83

    61

    60

    56

    56

    53

    53

    50

    49

    45

    45

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    783

    412

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