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Prediction markets for Florence
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
Feb 28, 4:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
41.43%chance
5513817
OptionVotes
1189
841
OptionVotes
2767
699
OptionProbability
95
94
92
91
90
90
89
88
88
88
87
86
84
84
83
83
83
82
82
81
81
79
79
78
78
78
78
78
78
76
76
75
75
74
73
72
72
72
70
69
69
69
69
68
66
66
65
65
62
59
54
52
50
50
48
46
41
41
41
37
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
32
32
31
29
27
24
24
23
17
10
10
8
5
OptionProbability
47
28
6
5
4
2
2
2
2
2
Who will host Saturday Night Live [SNL] for the first time in the 2020s? [Mega Market]
Apr 12, 4:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81155
OptionProbability
100
100
100
76
63
57
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
Who will be the Labour candidate for the next London mayoral election (scheduled 2028)?
Jul 22, 3:12 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM
9707
OptionProbability
32
27
16
7
5
4
3
2
2
2
OptionProbability
37
24
7
6
6
6
4
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
64
7
6
5
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council election for district 9
May 23, 2:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3304
OptionProbability
68
23
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Who will win the 2026 election for California's 28th State Senate district
Jun 16, 8:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2170
OptionProbability
88
12
Will I get a tenure-track job offer straight out of my PhD?
Feb 11, 1:47 AMJun 1, 12:39 AM
80.32%chance
3119
OptionVotes
202
49
OptionProbability
40
12
12
12
12
11