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Prediction markets for Gary
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
43%chance
349125780
OptionVotes
2566
1866
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
95.76%chance
11745339
OptionVotes
4614
1347
OptionVotes
7335
4553
By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)
Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
94.31%chance
9025606
OptionVotes
3919
917
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
80.91%chance
11225182
OptionVotes
1618
741
Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM
2618842
OptionProbability
86
80
80
76
72
65
55
53
51
35
31
27
10
4
In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
65.07%chance
11314902
OptionVotes
2220
880
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
80.05%chance
9814256
OptionVotes
2083
697
OptionVotes
3013
332
Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?
Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
3.09%chance
124819
OptionVotes
5494
16
Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning
Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM
28.51%chance
363775
OptionVotes
987
974
Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?
Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
89.48%chance
413065
OptionVotes
1830
824
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