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Top stories

Tornado Warnings Through August 8 Across Multiple Counties in KS, CO, ND, SD, MN Amid Damaging Winds Over 80 MPH

Natural Disasters

Tornado Warnings Through August 8 Across Multiple Counties in KS, CO, ND, SD, MN Amid Damaging Winds Over 80 MPH

Authors

3

7 days ago

Prediction markets for Gove

Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?

Nov 13, 2:32 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

46.49%chance

12411521863

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12074

6414

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

149199246

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

61

20

17

2

0

0

0

0

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

53.08%chance

91101678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

940

Will Kamala Harris run for governor of California?

Nov 15, 1:41 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

3.86%chance

5074762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

45384

4988

Will there be a US government shutdown in 2025?

Jul 19, 6:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.81%chance

10733650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4168

745

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.41%chance

8720078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12408

8996

Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?

Jul 4, 12:46 AMJul 11, 8:59 PM

398570

OptionProbability

Katie Porter

Other

Betty Yee

Eleni Kounalakis

Toni Atkins

Rick Caruso

Antonio Villaraigosa

Rob Bonta

Kamala Harris

Tony Thurmond

Xavier Becerra

Jesse Perez

Michael L. Younger

19

19

13

10

10

8

7

3

3

2

2

1

1

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.33%chance

146906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14718

5388

Who will be UK Prime Minister after Rishi Sunak's successor?

Jan 1, 9:39 PMJul 16, 8:42 PM

354435

OptionProbability

Nigel Farage

Other

Angela Rayner

Robert Jenrick

Kemi Badenoch

James Cleverly

Yvette Cooper

Ed Davey

Wes Streeting

Jeremy Corbyn

Keir Starmer

David Lammy

Andy Burnham

Rachel Reeves

Jeremy Hunt

Rishi Sunak

Ben Wallace

Rosena Allin-Khan

Penny Mordaunt

Suella Braverman

Rebecca Long-Bailey

Lisa Nandy

Someone Else

Emily Thornberry

Jess Phillips

Clive Lewis

Diane Abbott

John McDonnell

Dan Jarvis

Barry Gardiner

Ian Lavery

Michael Gove

Sajid Javid

Brandon Lewis

Grant Shapps

Tom Tugendhat

Boris Johnson

Theresa May

Andrea Leadsom

Stephen Crabb

Liam Fox

Nadhim Zahawi

Priti Patel

Angela Eagle

Hilary Benn

Jacob Rees-Mogg

Stephen Kinnock

Michelle Donelan

Johnny Mercer

Niko Omilana

27

24

11

10

7

5

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will "Please Donate to CAIP (Post 1 of 6 on AI Gove..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 25, 9:28 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.16%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

978

AI Governance Stock (Permanent)

Feb 9, 8:31 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

431

OptionProbability

NO

YES

141

90

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