Islamic Republic News

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

Dec 16, 2:35 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

53.08%chance

91101678

OptionVotes

YES

1064

940

US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?

Jun 10, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.02%chance

10234570

OptionVotes

YES

13712

9873

Will Israel topple the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of 2025?

Oct 2, 12:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.88%chance

11131346

OptionVotes

YES

2724

367

Will Iran’s regime fall in 2025?

Jun 23, 6:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.5%chance

325477

OptionVotes

YES

3087

324

Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?

Feb 1, 4:21 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32%chance

263773

OptionVotes

YES

1458

686

How much did the 2025/06/21 U.S. strikes on Iran delay the nuclear weapon program?

Jun 22, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4543

OptionProbability

>3 months

>6 months

>1 year

>2 years

>5 years

US-Iran nuclear deal before September? [Polymarket]

Jul 8, 12:41 AMSep 1, 3:59 AM

12508

OptionProbability

Yes

When the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next Supreme Leader?

Nov 25, 10:02 PMDec 2, 11:59 PM

6200

OptionProbability

No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

Mojtaba Khamenei

Other

Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.

Alireza Arafi

Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).

Islamic Republic News

Prediction markets for Islamic Republic

Prediction markets for Islamic Republic

Prediction markets for Islamic Republic

Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?

US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?

Will Israel topple the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the end of 2025?

Will Iran’s regime fall in 2025?

Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?

How much did the 2025/06/21 U.S. strikes on Iran delay the nuclear weapon program?

US-Iran nuclear deal before September? [Polymarket]

When the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next Supreme Leader?

Latest stories