OptionVotes
NO
YES
1057
946
87160
4383
5130
195
5350
187
1458
686
OptionProbability
>3 months
>6 months
>1 year
>2 years
>5 years
77
56
45
35
20
Other
No one (regime change, system change) = no Supreme Leader
Mojtaba Khamenei
Hashem Hosseini Bushehri
Ongoing “interim” arrangement / power-sharing structure.
Alireza Arafi
Power struggle between 1 or more that sees rival Supreme Leaders both with actually realistic claims (based on authority/endorsements by senior clerics and religious figures etc).
28
17
16
15
9
8
6
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