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Kazakhstan News

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    World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

    Jun 25, 3:43 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM
    19778608

    OptionProbability

    Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

    Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

    A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

    Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

    Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

    Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

    Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

    A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    ≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

    DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

    ≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

    Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

    World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

    United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

    At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

    Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

    India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

    A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

    United States troops enter Iran

    Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

    Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

    Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

    Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

    Donald Trump remains President of USA

    Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

    Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

    Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

    USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

    Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

    Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

    An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

    Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

    Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

    A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

    A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

    Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

    123

    Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

    The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

    1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

    A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

    Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

    Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

    A country declares war on Israel

    North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

    A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

    Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

    At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

    Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

    Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

    A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

    China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

    Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

    Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

    Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

    Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

    Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

    Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

    Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

    An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

    Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

    North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

    At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

    Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Successful military coup in Venezuela

    Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

    Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

    Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

    Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

    A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

    Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

    Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

    A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

    Iran undergoes a regime change

    Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

    Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

    North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

    Egypt formally declares war on another country

    Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

    A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

    An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

    Iran loses territory

    Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

    United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

    China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

    A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

    Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

    160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

    Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

    China formally declares war on another country

    China invades Taiwan

    Any country leaves NATO

    United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

    Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

    USA leaves NATO

    India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

    Sudanese Civil War ends

    Israel loses territory

    A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

    Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

    The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

    Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

    United States formally declares war on another country

    The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

    Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

    Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

    Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

    United States formally declares war on Iran

    Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

    Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

    Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Iranian troops enter Israel

    Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

    At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

    Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    A country declares war on United States

    United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

    Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

    Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

    Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

    Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

    Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

    Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

    Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

    Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

    Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

    Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

    Israel annexes any portion of Iran

    Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

    Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

    Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

    Humans will extinct

    Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

    Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    98

    97

    92

    92

    84

    84

    73

    63

    63

    62

    61

    60

    59

    53

    53

    53

    51

    50

    49

    49

    45

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    44

    44

    42

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    40

    40

    40

    39

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    38

    38

    36

    36

    34

    34

    33

    33

    33

    32

    32

    32

    31

    30

    30

    30

    30

    30

    29

    29

    28

    28

    28

    27

    26

    26

    26

    25

    25

    25

    25

    25

    24

    24

    24

    24

    23

    22

    22

    22

    21

    21

    21

    21

    21

    20

    20

    19

    19

    19

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    12

    12

    12

    11

    11

    11

    11

    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    8

    8

    7

    7

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    1

    0

    0

    UEFA Euro 2028: Which countries will qualify?

    Jul 13, 3:51 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM
    916103

    OptionProbability

    England

    Spain

    France

    Portugal

    Germany

    Netherlands

    Belgium

    Norway

    Switzerland

    Italy

    Denmark

    Turkey

    Croatia

    Republic of Ireland

    Austria

    Scotland

    Greece

    Ukraine

    Sweden

    Wales

    Poland

    Hungary

    Serbia

    Czech Republic

    Georgia

    Slovenia

    Kosovo

    Romania

    Slovakia

    Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Northern Ireland

    Albania

    Israel

    Iceland

    North Macedonia

    Finland

    Bulgaria

    Belarus

    Montenegro

    Cyprus

    Luxembourg

    Kazakhstan

    Armenia

    Estonia

    Azerbaijan

    Lithuania

    Latvia

    Moldova

    Malta

    Andorra

    Faroe Islands

    San Marino

    Liechtenstein

    Gibraltar

    98

    96

    95

    93

    91

    89

    88

    88

    86

    85

    82

    82

    81

    80

    78

    78

    75

    72

    72

    72

    71

    67

    64

    61

    56

    54

    53

    52

    52

    47

    44

    43

    33

    31

    24

    20

    16

    14

    13

    13

    12

    12

    10

    9

    9

    8

    7

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    3

    Will Kazakhstan join NATO by 2033?

    Jun 15, 8:59 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM
    12.93%chance
    1406902

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2710

    1934

    OptionProbability

    China

    Other

    DPRK

    India

    United Kingdom

    Japan

    South Korea

    United Arab Emirates

    Saudi Arabia

    France

    Russia

    Kazakhstan

    Germany

    94

    2

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Which countries will join NATO by 2030? 🌐➕

    Mar 10, 1:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    354362

    OptionProbability

    Bosnia and Herzegovina 🇧🇦

    Malta 🇲🇹

    Ukraine 🇺🇦

    Kosovo 🇽🇰

    Serbia 🇷🇸

    Cyprus 🇨🇾

    Moldova 🇲🇩

    Georgia 🇬🇪

    Armenia 🇦🇲

    Ireland 🇮🇪

    Azerbaijan 🇦🇿

    Kazakhstan 🇰🇿

    Austria 🇦🇹

    Belarus 🇧🇾

    Switzerland 🇨🇭

    Russia 🇷🇺

    71

    34

    29

    19

    17

    14

    13

    12

    12

    11

    10

    7

    5

    5

    4

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2728

    367

    OptionProbability

    Estonia

    Moldova

    Lithuania

    Latvia

    Georgia

    Armenia

    Finland

    Poland

    Other

    Kazakhstan

    Belarus

    Azerbaijan

    Japan

    Sweden

    Hungary

    26

    20

    18

    10

    5

    5

    3

    3

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    252

    108

    Will Russia launch a military invasion of Kazakhstan by 2033?

    Oct 5, 11:45 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM
    9.58%chance
    19733

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    364

    167

    OptionProbability

    North Korea

    Other

    Kazakhstan

    Russia

    Iran

    China

    United States

    Ukraine

    20

    20

    17

    12

    10

    10

    6

    5

    OptionProbability

    India

    UAE

    Kazakhstan

    Hungary

    Turkey

    Brazil

    Egypt

    Thailand

    Saudi Arabia

    82

    59

    50

    50

    44

    44

    44

    44

    44

    Will Kazakhstan get a nuclear bomb before end of 2050?

    Apr 22, 11:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    18.34%chance
    4171

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    211

    47

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