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Top stories

Philippine Coast Guard Ships Harassed by Chinese Vessel 5304 as PLA Conducts 33 Sorties Near Taiwan; Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Enter Kinmen Waters

Philippine Coast Guard Ships Harassed by Chinese Vessel 5304 as PLA Conducts 33 Sorties Near Taiwan; Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Enter Kinmen Waters

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Kinmen Island

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.8%chance

5012312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3010

1419

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Nov 17, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.29%chance

7410673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

870

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.49%chance

899968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8768

5599

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2026?

Jan 1, 4:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.35%chance

124022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3840

260

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.67%chance

322881

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

962

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.57%chance

351802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

830

Land Bridge built connecting PRC (mainland) and Taiwan (Main Island) through 2040

Sep 4, 9:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7%chance

7449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

126

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2027?

Jan 1, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.76%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

Will mainland China have more than one time zone? By mid 2037

Jan 10, 8:07 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

21.41%chance

9202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

96

Will China deploy a Shuiqiao barge to land forces on the main Kinmen island by the end of 2029?

Sep 13, 6:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.34%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan in 2027?

Oct 5, 11:09 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

19.93%chance

4106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

65

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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