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Top stories

Philippine Coast Guard Ships Harassed by Chinese Vessel 5304 as PLA Conducts 33 Sorties Near Taiwan; Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Enter Kinmen Waters

Philippine Coast Guard Ships Harassed by Chinese Vessel 5304 as PLA Conducts 33 Sorties Near Taiwan; Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Enter Kinmen Waters

Authors

6

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Kinmen Island

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.41%chance

5012262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2960

1439

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Nov 17, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

7210550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

931

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.34%chance

849686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8907

5584

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2026?

Jan 1, 4:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.35%chance

124022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3840

260

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.9%chance

312681

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1071

854

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.53%chance

341502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

922

Bridge built connecting PRC (mainland) and Taiwan (Main Island) through 2040

Sep 4, 8:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.82%chance

4330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

460

82

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2027?

Jan 1, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.76%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2028?

Sep 25, 9:04 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

23.71%chance

9211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

112

Will mainland China have more than one time zone? By mid 2037

Jan 10, 8:07 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

21.41%chance

9202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

96

Will China deploy a Shuiqiao barge to land forces on the main Kinmen island by the end of 2029?

Sep 13, 6:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.34%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan in 2027?

Oct 5, 11:09 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

19.93%chance

4106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

65

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