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Top stories

Philippine Coast Guard Ships Harassed by Chinese Vessel 5304 as PLA Conducts 33 Sorties Near Taiwan; Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Enter Kinmen Waters

Philippine Coast Guard Ships Harassed by Chinese Vessel 5304 as PLA Conducts 33 Sorties Near Taiwan; Chinese Coast Guard Vessels Enter Kinmen Waters

Authors

6

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Kinmen Island

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?

Dec 10, 3:41 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.9%chance

13925601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25089

9790

Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?

Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.49%chance

5212366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3035

1410

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Nov 17, 6:56 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.54%chance

7710878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1196

857

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2026?

Jan 1, 4:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.49%chance

124047

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4148

241

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.27%chance

352998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

986

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?

Dec 10, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.56%chance

412657

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1860

746

Bridge built connecting PRC (mainland) and Taiwan (Main Island) through 2040

Sep 4, 8:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.82%chance

4330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

460

82

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2027?

Jan 1, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.76%chance

10261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan anytime through 2028?

Sep 25, 9:04 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

23.71%chance

9211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

112

Will China deploy a Shuiqiao barge to land forces on the main Kinmen island by the end of 2029?

Sep 13, 6:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.34%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will Xi Jinping be in Taiwan in 2027?

Oct 5, 11:09 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

19.93%chance

4106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

65

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?

Aug 1, 4:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.64%chance

14

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

98

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