OptionProbability
Japan
UK
Saudi Arabia
Israel
South Korea
Canada
The Netherlands
germany
Qatar
Italy
Vatican City
Any EU country in December 2025
USA (not including mainland) after 27 November 2025
Ukraine
mexico
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan after 27 November
Spain
Any south american or central american country besides Mexico
norway
Hungary
Puerto Rico after 25 November
Turkey (not for Thanksgiving), Albania, Greece, Cyprus, Syria after 25 November
Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore after 15 November
France
Russia
Poland
Brazil
Argentina
El Salvador
Belgium
Vietnam
South Africa
Taiwan
India
Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Macedonia, Montenegro after 25 November
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China (mainland)
North Korea
New Zealand, Australia or New Caledonia after 25 November
100
23
19
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
USA
Belarus
Kyrgyzstan
Sri Lanka
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Afghanistan
Tajikistan
Oman
Azerbaijan
Botswana
Peru
Myanmar
Suriname
Eritrea
66
32
15
14
OptionVotes
YES
NO
233
91
301
187