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Top stories

Severe Storms Hammer Colorado Front Range With Baseball-Size Hail

Natural Disasters

Severe Storms Hammer Colorado Front Range With Baseball-Size Hail

Authors

5

5 days ago

Prediction markets for Last Chance

Will there be any lynchings in the USA by the end of 2025?

Sep 16, 10:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.94%chance

207530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3404

294

Will 50,000 United States citizens live in the Gaza strip by Jan 1 2029?

Feb 9, 11:03 PMJan 3, 6:59 AM

9.63%chance

247417

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3064

326

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think AI-caused extinction is more likely?

Jan 30, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

584396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1373

543

Will GPT-5 make Manifold think very near-term AGI is more likely?

Mar 3, 1:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

453736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2930

174

What stake will OpenAI's non-profit have in its for-profit arm, if restructured?

Jan 3, 5:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32355

OptionProbability

Fraction of voting shares allocated to non-profit

Fraction of shares allocated to non-profit

Fraction of profit allocated to non-profit

29

25

14

Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

May 2, 4:09 PMJun 11, 6:59 PM

28.64%chance

322011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

957

Is the preprint suggesting Betelgeuse supernova within decades correct?

Jun 20, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.7%chance

161969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1919

765

Will I let the AI out of the box?

Nov 23, 4:58 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.39%chance

21701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

738

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.45%chance

18399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

960

Can a zero-knowledge proof be evidence even if the proof is constructed randomly?

Oct 21, 8:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

89.24%chance

5257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

321

46

Coinflip of the century (experiment in prediction markets, read description)

Dec 18, 5:20 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

50.99%chance

13140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Is it delusional to give humanity a 25% chance to survive till the last star is no more?

Dec 22, 11:40 PM

420

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