OptionProbability
EU Parliament gets right of Legislative Initiative
EU-wide UBI
Broad consensus on CMU (Capital Markets Union) completion
EU institution controlling an army of over 20,000 personnel
S&D becoming the largest group in the EP
EU Parliament gaining full co-decision powers on all EU legislation
(to be resolved N/A)
A new Treaty will reform the EU constitution (as Lisbon or Maastricht Treaties did)
Abolition of unanimity in foreign policy
Direct election of the Commission President by the population
At least 1/3 of the Parliament elected on Union-wide lists
EU overtaking the USA in GDP (PPP)
EU achieving net-zero carbon emissions
EU institution controlling an army of over 100,000 personnel
Nuclear weapons under the control of an EU institution
EU-wide minimum wage
EU finances more than 50% of its budget from self-collected taxes
76
62
61
60
51
50
49
47
41
40
33
26
25
24
12
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