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Prediction markets for Matli
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
53.85%chance
277452830
OptionVotes
6206
2880
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
17.82%chance
99161555
OptionVotes
111105
17339
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM
63.05%chance
216122009
OptionVotes
10846
8080
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM
18.68%chance
15870411
OptionVotes
1902
1495
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM
41.28%chance
6226753
OptionVotes
12280
8032
Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?
Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
70.01%chance
359384
OptionVotes
15278
6546
Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?
Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
35.83%chance
125543
OptionVotes
10627
9444
Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?
Sep 9, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM
15.25%chance
15844
OptionVotes
236
42
Who will be the last surviving Apollo astronaut? (*both* among moonwalkers and non-moonwalkers)
Dec 24, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8247
OptionProbability
29
19
15
12
9
5
4
3
2
2
Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040
Jun 24, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
21.29%chance
4105
OptionVotes
192
52
Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)
Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
20%chance
1100
OptionVotes
200
50