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Top stories

Pakistan CTD Dismantles Alleged RAW Network in Karachi

Pakistan CTD Dismantles Alleged RAW Network in Karachi

Authors

3

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Matli

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

88.48%chance

336644389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11092

3630

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

82.65%chance

415213145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16507

7941

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

109171214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

81796

26531

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

42.34%chance

9534261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12025

8215

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.52%chance

4013689

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14097

7094

Before 2028, will AI systems outperform mathematicians at suggesting reasonable explanations for new OEIS sequences?

Jul 20, 9:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.83%chance

125543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10627

9444

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

32.74%chance

122181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5594

2925

Will Ilya Sutskever be involved in mentoring a MATS project in any of MATS 9, 10, or 11?

Sep 9, 12:57 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

15.25%chance

15844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Will "MATS 9 Retrospective & Advice" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 16, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.91%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

987

Will someone from SERI MATS win a turing award by 2040

Jun 24, 11:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.29%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

192

52

Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)

Jun 11, 5:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

did you or anyone in your household have The Mat as a kid?

Oct 6, 10:16 PM

260

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