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Prediction markets for Mercury

What will be the first celestial body other than Earth, Moon and Mars to be visited by humans?

Apr 2, 1:15 PMApr 10, 3:59 AM

223235

OptionProbability

Callisto

Ganymede

Europa

Mercury

Titan

Venus

Io

Other

51

18

16

10

3

1

1

1

Will fintech Mercury collapse before 2026?

Jul 4, 11:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

7.07%chance

32965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3624

276

Will more than a gram of non-radioactive gold be produced from mercury by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

61549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Will a human walk on Mercury before 2040?

Dec 30, 8:59 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.75%chance

191539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1471

922

Will there be a crewed mission to Mercury before 2040?

Dec 30, 1:29 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.37%chance

11828

OptionVotes

NO

YES

161

146

Will there be a crewed mission to Mercury before 2045?

Dec 30, 8:26 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

33.52%chance

11696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

73

Will there be a crewed mission to Mercury before 2050?

Jan 8, 11:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

49.26%chance

8550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

52

Will Mercury be dismantled before 2070?

May 13, 1:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.08%chance

10507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

45

Will a human walk on Mercury before 2045?

Jan 1, 8:47 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.57%chance

13397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

960

Will a spacecraft that plans to attempt a soft landing on Mercury launch by the end of 2030?

Aug 25, 2:31 AMDec 2, 4:59 AM

24%chance

7113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

76

Successful Mercury landing till 2040?

Apr 22, 7:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.15%chance

342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

100

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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