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Prediction markets for Money
Will real-money betting on Polymarket or Manifold become legal for US residents in 2025?
Jan 22, 7:14 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
76.33%chance
7643277
OptionVotes
18510
2717
Will Trump successfully appeal the hush money case?
Apr 17, 12:57 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
44.99%chance
7140266
OptionVotes
1191
660
Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81.59%chance
3423330
OptionVotes
2335
416
In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)
Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM
63.63%chance
7921645
OptionVotes
2729
2049
Will the Spaceballs sequel be called "Spaceballs 2: The Search for More Money"?
Jun 19, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
217503
OptionProbability
74
22
4
Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by the end of 2025?
Mar 7, 7:01 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
65.44%chance
837483
OptionVotes
1514
268
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Will Manifold offer real money betting again before the end of 2025?
Jun 6, 11:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
18%chance
251567
OptionVotes
723
544
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
57.1%chance
8909
OptionVotes
1154
867
Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?
Mar 25, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.94%chance
29705
OptionVotes
991
975
Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?
Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
44.54%chance
9462
OptionVotes
1275
1087
OptionVotes
1459
987
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