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Prediction markets for Money
Will Trump successfully appeal the hush money case?
Apr 17, 12:57 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM
41.81%chance
8264001
OptionVotes
1144
722
Will the CFTC permit real-money prediction markets on the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Apr 16, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
81.48%chance
3623537
OptionVotes
2327
418
In 10 years, what % of the EA/adjacent community think, on balance that Wytham Abbey was a good use of money, compared to the other options at the time? (Buy yes to increase)
Dec 10, 1:17 PMDec 10, 11:59 PM
63.63%chance
7921645
OptionVotes
2729
2049
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
59.97%chance
808792
OptionVotes
1176
716
Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?
Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.61%chance
745724
OptionVotes
2141
900
Will I ever be net positive (real money) on Manifold before 2030?
Sep 9, 7:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
95.86%chance
193883
OptionVotes
3559
76
Will there be a new denomination of coin money for the United States before the end of 2040?
Mar 27, 4:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
23.03%chance
221274
OptionVotes
1091
947
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
59.17%chance
9959
OptionVotes
1204
831
OptionVotes
1334
1083
Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?
Mar 25, 12:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
71.94%chance
29705
OptionVotes
991
975
Dec 1 2023 to Nov 30 2026, will a UK strike price of £65 (2012 prices) for offshore wind save consumers money?
Nov 4, 2:28 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
44.54%chance
9462
OptionVotes
1275
1087
Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?
Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
78.3%chance
15188
OptionVotes
1119
950
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