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New Haven News

    Prediction markets for New Haven

    Who will win the 2028 US presidential elections?

    Nov 8, 11:41 AMNov 26, 4:59 AM
    4620435

    OptionProbability

    Other

    JD Vance

    Jon Ossoff

    Gavin Newsom

    AOC

    Josh Shapiro

    Donald Trump

    Ron DeSantis

    Kamala Harris

    Other candidate with Trump as their last name

    Pete Buttigieg

    Joe Biden

    Nikki Haley

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Vivek Ramaswamy

    Chris Christie

    Elizabeth Warren

    Bernie Sanders

    Other Democrat Politician

    Other Republican Politician

    Michelle Obama

    Hillary Clinton

    Michael Bloomberg

    Elon Musk

    Ivanka Trump

    Barack Obama

    Tulsi Gabbard

    John Fetterman

    Cory Booker

    Kanye West

    22

    19

    15

    9

    9

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies?

    Aug 25, 3:08 AMDec 31, 6:53 PM
    2913406

    OptionProbability

    The Man Who Killed Don Quioxte

    Brazil

    The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

    Mr. Nobody

    The Assessment

    Revlover

    The Congress (2013)

    Lurker

    Code 3

    Masthishka Maranam

    The Banshees of Inisherin

    The Fountain

    The French Dispatch

    The Square

    The Artist

    Swiss Army Man

    Cosmopolis

    Cloud Atlas

    Southland Tales

    Fitzcarraldo

    Welcome to the N-H-K

    The Grand Budapest Hotel

    62

    61

    60

    54

    51

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    49

    49

    48

    47

    46

    45

    43

    43

    40

    39

    0

    OptionProbability

    4c) Generalisation splitting, posted EoY 2026

    8a) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >50 upvotes

    8c) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, posted EoY 2026

    3b) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >3 comments

    5b) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >3 comments

    6b) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >3 comments

    1c) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, posted EoY 2026

    2b) Prediction markets for good, >3 comments

    3a) A taxonomy of selection hacking, >50 upvotes

    1b) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >3 comments

    2c) Prediction markets for good, posted EoY 2026

    7b) DCI Concrete projects, >3 comments

    5a) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, >50 upvotes

    2a) Prediction markets for good, >50 upvotes

    7a) DCI Concrete projects, >50 upvotes

    4b) Generalisation splitting, >3 comments

    1a) AI Safety Research Futarchy Follow-up, >50 upvotes

    6a) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, >50 upvotes

    5c) Weak-to-strong is a bad idea, posted EoY 2026

    3c) A taxonomy of selection hacking, posted EoY 2026

    7c) DCI Concrete projects, posted EoY 2026

    6c) DCI Philosophy and Theory of Change, posted EoY 2026

    4a) Generalisation splitting, >50 upvotes

    8b) Emergent misalignment and optimisers, >3 comments

    100

    100

    100

    86

    80

    77

    75

    73

    69

    67

    64

    64

    58

    57

    57

    56

    54

    54

    52

    50

    50

    48

    44

    0

    Who is the "man marked by flames"?

    Jun 30, 5:22 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
    727416

    OptionProbability

    New character we haven't seen yet

    Monkey D. Dragon

    Scopper Gaban

    Jaguar D. Saul

    The marines

    67

    28

    4

    0

    0

    Will I regret switching to public high school? [Decide My Life Ep. 1]

    Jan 24, 3:26 PMDec 31, 3:10 PM
    15.61%chance
    487070

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2696

    951

    OptionProbability

    Simping

    copium

    Metaculus

    femcel

    GPT-8

    xenogender

    AuDHD

    otherkin

    mogged

    workslop

    Transbian

    headmate

    Aroace

    Underquilt

    Ameritrash

    rizzful

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    chadlet

    Manifund

    SDXL

    Mountainousness

    greebled

    NotKillEveryoneIsm

    Rationalussy

    100

    100

    80

    78

    77

    73

    73

    66

    63

    61

    57

    57

    46

    39

    33

    28

    28

    27

    26

    23

    21

    21

    18

    3

    Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?

    Nov 28, 8:52 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
    91.88%chance
    364548

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2436

    734

    If I start identifying as a woman, will it bother me?

    Dec 13, 2:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
    23.48%chance
    493818

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1054

    549

    OptionProbability

    Is marketed as Episode X

    Red lightsaber on screen

    Will be announced before 2028

    Blue lightsaber on screen

    Green lightsaber on screen

    The "Millennium Falcon" is on screen or mentioned

    Trailer out before 2028 (teaser counts)

    New droid companion

    "Darth Sidious" or "Palpatine" is mentioned

    A character is a Skywalker (by blood, name does not matter)

    Is defined as part of a trilogy, before its premier date

    Tie fighters on screen

    "Darth Vader" is mentioned

    A dead character has spoken lines

    A dead person appears as something like a ~spirit

    Oscar Isaac returns in his previous role

    Strong, quasi-masculine-presenting female lead character

    Scantily clad hypersexualized female characters

    Movie contains reference to upcoming movie (e.g. "to be continued")

    Digital version of dead actor plays a role

    Any actor from the original trilogy plays the same role

    Yellow lightsaber on screen

    Scores ≥7.5 on IMDB exactly one month after release

    There will be a new lightsaber based weapon form we haven’t seen before (like Kylo’s light saber hilt).

    John Boyega returns in his previous role

    Taxes are mentioned

    Droid dances

    Using the force to choke someone

    Death Star mentioned

    Flashback to a period clearly overlapping with movies I-IX

    Blue milk on screen

    Adam Driver returns in his previous role

    Purple lightsaber on screen

    Cantina band song remix

    Sole director credit to Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy

    Will NOT be announced before 2030

    Main character is not human

    Somehow, Palpatine returned

    The word "rationalussy" is spoken

    95

    85

    84

    83

    79

    72

    66

    65

    65

    64

    59

    56

    54

    53

    51

    50

    50

    50

    50

    46

    45

    44

    44

    44

    42

    41

    35

    35

    35

    34

    34

    30

    27

    27

    26

    20

    19

    9

    1

    OptionProbability

    Outgassing

    Something Else

    Solar Radiation Pressure

    40

    40

    21

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