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Prediction markets for North Korea
If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed?
Nov 1, 11:55 PMNov 8, 11:59 PM
95%chance
224436
OptionVotes
3398
713
OptionVotes
4628
216
Will North Korea attempt to invade South Korea before 2035?
Sep 17, 4:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
24.6%chance
293623
OptionVotes
976
941
OptionVotes
1123
878
OptionVotes
1367
894
Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2032
Sep 15, 11:30 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
6.82%chance
181601
OptionVotes
2100
848
Will Kim Jong Un stop being the leader of North Korea before Vladimir Putin stops being the leader of Russia?
Dec 18, 1:51 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM
11.24%chance
141559
OptionVotes
2216
724
Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050?
Mar 31, 5:46 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
21.55%chance
231274
OptionVotes
984
933
Will US citizens have the opportunity to vacation in North Korea on January 1st 2040?
Feb 18, 10:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
27.54%chance
261108
OptionVotes
1121
931
Will North and South Korea be reunified any time through 2043
Sep 15, 11:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM
30.44%chance
15681
OptionVotes
1014
940
Will Russia or North Korea honor mutual defense pact if the other is attacked?
Jun 19, 4:49 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
75.6%chance
6235
OptionVotes
988
983
Will "Having OCD is like living in North Korea (Her..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 19, 10:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.73%chance
255
OptionVotes
1020
997
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