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Top stories

UK Bank Holiday Set to Hit 30°C Before Erin’s Remnants Bring Rain

UK Bank Holiday Set to Hit 30°C Before Erin’s Remnants Bring Rain

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Prediction markets for Northern Ireland

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2100?

Oct 21, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

75.34%chance

222110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1404

819

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?

Oct 15, 7:11 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.05%chance

221270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1694

859

Northern Ireland Self-determination Choices Before 2030

Feb 8, 10:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

15864

OptionProbability

No referendum

Referendum, NI leaves, joins with ROI

Referendum, NI stays

Referendum, NI leaves, doesn't join with ROI

62

22

15

1

Will Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolish its monarchy before 2030?

Apr 8, 10:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.4%chance

31780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

958

Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

6.83%chance

11771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

717

111

When will Michelle O’Neill be replaced as First Minister of Northern Ireland?

Feb 3, 1:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6690

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2029

2028

2030

2031

2032

2025

2033

Other

2024

17

16

14

10

10

8

7

6

6

5

1

Will there be a border poll in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by the end of 2028?

Oct 2, 8:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

21610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

895

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

944

Will Northern Ireland join the Republic of Ireland by 2100?

Mar 17, 9:07 AMMar 17, 9:59 PM

73.83%chance

10208

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

125

In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?

Jan 14, 2:12 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

77.74%chance

8155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

164

Location of next non-BIOT land to leave the United Kingdom, its overseas territories, or crown dependencies?

Sep 19, 9:42 PMDec 31, 2:52 PM

3127

OptionProbability

Europe (including Cyprus)

Atlantic Ocean (excluding the British Isles or Gibraltar)

Caribbean

Scotland

Northern Ireland

Cyprus

67

41

34

25

25

18

Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2040?

Oct 2, 5:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.55%chance

570

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

89

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