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Top stories

Met Office Issues Yellow Warnings for Thunderstorms, Hail, Flash Flooding Across UK with Temperature Rise Expected

Natural Disasters

Met Office Issues Yellow Warnings for Thunderstorms, Hail, Flash Flooding Across UK with Temperature Rise Expected

Authors

6

13 days ago

Starmer Government Unveils Plan to Let 16-Year-Olds Vote Nationwide

Starmer Government Unveils Plan to Let 16-Year-Olds Vote Nationwide

Authors

239

17 days ago

Met Office Issues Yellow Warnings for Rain, Thunderstorms, Hail, and Flooding Risk Across Southern England July 20-31

Natural Disasters

Met Office Issues Yellow Warnings for Rain, Thunderstorms, Hail, and Flooding Risk Across Southern England July 20-31

Authors

4

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Northern Ireland

Will the UK (excluding Northern Ireland) experience major riots in 2025, similar to 2024? (V2)

Jun 11, 9:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

113376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1766

566

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2100?

Oct 21, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

84.78%chance

201951

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2063

660

What will be the next UN Member state?

Jul 2, 12:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

301344

OptionProbability

No new members

Bougainville

Somaliland

Palestine

Other

New Caledonia

Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order

Quebec

Kosovo

Scotland

East African Federation

Siberia

Tatarstan

Western Sahara

Catalonia

Puerto Rico

Taiwan

Abkhazia

Northern Cyprus

Wales

Northern Ireland

South Ossetia

Transnistria

Nagorno-Karabakh

Crimea

Basque Country

Russia

Korea

Vatican City

Greenland

34

28

15

8

6

3

2

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?

Oct 15, 7:11 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

10.39%chance

211220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

865

Will Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolish its monarchy before 2030?

Apr 8, 10:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.4%chance

31780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

958

Will Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2030?

Feb 8, 10:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

6.47%chance

11769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

745

109

Will there be a border poll in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by the end of 2028?

Oct 2, 8:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

21610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

895

When will Michelle O’Neill be replaced as First Minister of Northern Ireland?

Feb 3, 1:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5572

OptionProbability

2024

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Other

18

15

14

14

9

5

5

5

5

5

4

Will Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:58 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

30%chance

13550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

944

Northern Ireland Self-determination Choices Before 2030

Feb 8, 10:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

14530

OptionProbability

No referendum

Referendum, NI leaves, joins with ROI

Referendum, NI stays

Referendum, NI leaves, doesn't join with ROI

62

22

14

2

Will Northern Ireland join the Republic of Ireland by 2100?

Mar 17, 9:07 AMMar 17, 9:59 PM

70.37%chance

9184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

227

134

In the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, will nationalists win at least as many seats as unionists?

Jan 14, 2:12 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

77.74%chance

8155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

237

164

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