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Top stories

Turkey Unveils $460 Million Steel Dome Air Defense System With 47 Vehicles, Erdogan Launches $1.5 Billion ASELSAN Base

Turkey Unveils $460 Million Steel Dome Air Defense System With 47 Vehicles, Erdogan Launches $1.5 Billion ASELSAN Base

Authors

11

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Oğulbey Technology Base

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.34%chance

8146108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32243

2599

Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2030?

Oct 29, 12:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

95.94%chance

10423726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9951

741

Fully indistinguishable fast human deepfakes before 2030?

Feb 8, 2:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.93%chance

7014663

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14553

6871

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

Feb 20, 10:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.17%chance

1459535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6060

4388

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.77%chance

225724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13114

7625

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

16.73%chance

434800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3128

1058

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

74271

OptionProbability

Gallium

Germanium

Neodymium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Indium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

13

8

8

7

7

6

5

5

5

5

4

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?

Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.65%chance

13186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

977

Will Chevron Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 58

58 - 59.9

60 - 61.9

62 - 63.9

64 - 65.9

66+

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

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