Pacific island News
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Prediction markets for Pacific island
Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.26%chance
224741
OptionVotes
5159
2655
OptionProbability
62
34
27
26
25
24
15
7
Will there still be at least three Commonwealth Realms in 2028?
May 8, 12:08 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
95.51%chance
131007
OptionVotes
1795
922
OptionVotes
1051
819
Will there still be at least nine Commonwealth Realms in 2028?
May 8, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
75.32%chance
11201
OptionVotes
1027
981
United States gains new territory before China or Russia
Jan 13, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
25.19%chance
4169
OptionVotes
172
58
Will Australia enter into any similar agreement to the Falepili Union with another Pacific Island country before 2030?
Nov 10, 11:06 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
68.93%chance
594
OptionVotes
182
129
Will any other country enter into a similar agreement to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?
Nov 10, 11:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
74.61%chance
250
OptionVotes
140
61
Will any of these countries enter into a pact similar to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?
Nov 10, 12:10 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
146
OptionProbability
78
75
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
Which of these Pacific Island countries will sign 'climate refuge pacts' with Australia before 2030?
Nov 10, 11:30 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
445
OptionProbability
59
59
59
59
51
50
50
50
50
41
Will Taiwan's government recognise a 17th Indigenous group before 2030?
Apr 10, 9:32 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM
70.71%chance
335
OptionVotes
125
68
Which will be the next Pacific Island country to sign a 'climate refuge pact' with Australia?
Nov 10, 11:20 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
218
OptionProbability
21
19
18
12
10
7
6
6