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Prediction markets for Papua
OptionProbability
19
19
10
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
97
96
96
96
95
94
91
90
90
89
87
86
86
85
85
85
84
83
82
80
80
80
78
76
75
72
71
70
66
66
60
60
60
59
58
55
54
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
46
46
45
45
45
44
42
42
39
38
38
38
37
36
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
32
31
30
30
30
30
28
28
28
28
27
25
24
23
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
20
20
20
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
9
8
8
7
5
5
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will Bougainville be a country by end of 2027? [Showcase: M$10,000 subsidy]
OptionVotes
19342
2399
Which countries will legalize homosexual behavior by 2030( can Add countries)
OptionProbability
93
90
69
59
55
55
45
44
35
31
20
20
20
20
20
20
17
17
16
16
13
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
OptionProbability
100
50
50
50
41
28
28
20
14
11
OptionVotes
2052
487
Which country will lose territory to a newly founded country by 2050? [add responses]
OptionProbability
80
76
76
76
74
72
72
72
67
66
60
60
60
60
59
59
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
46
44
41
41
40
33
33
31
28
24
24
23
OptionProbability
100
83
76
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
38
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
32
23
23
Which will be the next country to renounce the British Royal Family and become a Republic?
OptionProbability
29
29
20
13
6
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Bougainville Island achieve independence from Papua New Guinea before 2029?
OptionVotes
151
66
Will Papua New Guinea hold its 2027 national election on schedule?
OptionVotes
110
91
OptionProbability
50
50
50