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Top stories

Poilievre Demands Clearer Self-Defence Law After Ontario Home Invasion Charge

Poilievre Demands Clearer Self-Defence Law After Ontario Home Invasion Charge

Authors

4

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Parliament

Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?

Jul 21, 1:09 PMAug 16, 10:59 PM

1.47%chance

2125263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8183

122

Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?

Mar 30, 2:48 AMSep 21, 3:59 AM

39.27%chance

273123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

760

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

Will a new party be elected to NZ Parliament by 2030?

Nov 6, 10:25 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

24.2%chance

232074

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

857

Will the European Parliament pass a no-confidence vote against the Commission during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 3:12 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

10.19%chance

52021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2969

337

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.07%chance

101522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1223

818

Will Polish parliament equalize the retirement age for men and women before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.01%chance

17902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

666

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.5%chance

20465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

911

Poland: Will current Parliament serve a full term?

Nov 13, 9:37 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

77.33%chance

8375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

38

Will Polish parliament raise the retirement age before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.26%chance

10157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

989

How many MSPs will the Scottish Greens get at the next Scottish Parliament election?

Apr 11, 5:43 PMMay 7, 10:59 PM

379

OptionProbability

8-9

9-10

10-11

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

0-1

1-2

2-3

3-4

11-12

12-13

13-14

14-15

15-16

16-17

17-18

18-19

19-20

20-21

21-22

22-23

23-24

24-25

25-26

26-27

27-28

28-29

29-30

30-31

31-32

32-33

33-34

34-35

35-36

36-37

37-38

38-39

39-40

40-41

41-42

42-43

43-44

44-45

45-46

46-47

47-48

48-49

49-50

13

13

13

10

10

10

10

2

2

2

2

2

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be an extraordinary Scottish Parliament election due to failure to elect a First Minister?

Jan 15, 12:24 PMMay 6, 11:59 PM

14.28%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

991

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