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Top stories

Poilievre Demands Clearer Self-Defence Law After Ontario Home Invasion Charge

Poilievre Demands Clearer Self-Defence Law After Ontario Home Invasion Charge

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Parliament

Will The Startup Party get more seats in Parliament after the next general election than Reform UK will?

Jul 21, 1:09 PMAug 16, 10:59 PM

3%chance

2132109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5686

176

Will a new party be elected to NZ Parliament by 2030?

Nov 6, 10:25 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

86.32%chance

263759

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2186

158

Will the UK Government move to restrict access to VPNs this Parliament?

Aug 20, 5:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

173004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1921

520

Will transnational lists be implemented for the European Parliament elections in 2029?

May 18, 3:50 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

30.67%chance

122156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

665

Will the European Parliament pass a no-confidence vote against the Commission during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 3:12 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

10.19%chance

52021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2969

337

Will Polish parliament equalize the retirement age for men and women before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.01%chance

17902

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

666

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Jan 13, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.52%chance

21478

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

911

If there is a by-election in Hackney North and Stoke Newington in the 2024 parliament, which party will win?

May 24, 10:45 AMDec 31, 11:44 AM

4369

OptionProbability

Labour

Green

Liberal Democrats

Other

Conservatives

Reform UK

40

23

18

9

6

5

Trump Lost parliament Support Before 2028

Jun 23, 4:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.69%chance

1256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

28

Who will win a majority in Taiwan's parliament in the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 23, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6212

OptionProbability

中國國民黨 (Kuomintang, KMT)

民主進步黨 (Democratic Progressive Party, DPP)

台灣民眾黨 (Taiwan People's Party, TPP)

79

14

7

When will the first One Nation defection or departure in South Australian parliament occur?

Mar 25, 3:17 AMDec 31, 3:15 AM

3175

OptionProbability

No members leave or defect before parliament dissolves

Before 1 July 2026

July to December 2026

During 2027

2028 or later

27

18

18

18

18

Will Polish parliament raise the retirement age before 2030?

Jan 27, 12:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.26%chance

10157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

989

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