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Top stories

Defense Secretary Hegseth Fires DIA Chief Kruse Over Leaked Iran Strike Report; Doug Beck Resigns as DIU Director

US Gov Appointments

US Foreign Policy

Defense Secretary Hegseth Fires DIA Chief Kruse Over Leaked Iran Strike Report; Doug Beck Resigns as DIU Director

Authors

41

6 months ago

Trump Deploys 1,700 National Guard Troops Across 19 States From August to November to Support DHS and ICE in Immigration Enforcement

US Domestic Policy

Trump Deploys 1,700 National Guard Troops Across 19 States From August to November to Support DHS and ICE in Immigration Enforcement

Authors

46

6 months ago

U.S. Clears $850 Million ERAM Missile Sale to Ukraine, Delivery in Six Weeks

US Foreign Policy

U.S. Clears $850 Million ERAM Missile Sale to Ukraine, Delivery in Six Weeks

Authors

4

5 months ago

US Domestic Policy

Pete Hegseth’s Heaviest Pentagon Security Detail Strains Army, Diverts Agents From Criminal Investigations at Family Homes

Authors

8

6 months ago

Safe Pro Group Raises $8 Million From Ondas and Unusual Machines to Boost AI Drones

Authors

4

6 months ago

US Domestic Policy

Hegseth, RFK Jr. Launch Pentagon Fitness Challenge of 100 Push-Ups, 50 Pull-Ups

Authors

30

6 months ago

US Domestic Policy

Female Military Recruitment Up 7,260 to 23,985 in FY 2025, Trump and Sec. Hegseth Credited

Authors

13

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Pentagon

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

166227047

OptionProbability

We don't find out by end of 2026

Other

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

86

10

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Pete Hegseth go to prison?

Dec 21, 5:14 AMDec 21, 5:12 AM

133539

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.45%chance

182964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2927

342

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

P(Aliens) - Are the 2020-2022 Pentagon UFO Navy videos evidence of human-level or above intelligent life in the Milky Way?

Dec 12, 11:45 PMDec 1, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

21965

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

706

Would any of these be the accepted explanation for one of the pentagon UFO videos / david grusch's claims by 2028?

Oct 29, 7:33 AMJan 1, 6:14 PM

10550

OptionProbability

Natural phenomena

Faked evidence / false testimony

Failure of detection equipment

Advanced and secret human technology

Previously unknown other species inhabitants of earth

Non human intelligence from outer space / other dimensions

61

61

56

52

16

8

Will the US withdraw from AUKUS under Trump?

Jun 11, 8:18 PMJan 21, 11:59 AM

49.24%chance

5230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

985

Will U.S. Army Col. Karl Nell ever claim under oath that aliens exist?

Oct 21, 1:40 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

21.53%chance

6137

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

53

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

924

Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027

Feb 16, 1:11 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.48%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Will "Does Pentagon Pizza Theory Work?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 24, 7:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.41%chance

251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

993

Pentagon stock [permanent]

Apr 4, 1:30 AMAug 11, 9:43 PM

48.36%chance

424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

108

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