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Prediction markets for Phase One
Will the UK HS2 rail line between London and Birmingham be operational before 2031?
Feb 16, 9:15 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
5.22%chance
2511293
OptionVotes
11988
1114
OptionVotes
3264
307
Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?
Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
73.59%chance
212870
OptionVotes
1221
865
End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
36.84%chance
242303
OptionVotes
1098
735
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
75.94%chance
321986
OptionVotes
1679
610
Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2036?
Jul 14, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
57.59%chance
7575
OptionVotes
6240
5801
OptionVotes
1040
971
Does Janssen's CD59 gene therapy for age-related macular degeneration work?
Jun 4, 2:58 AMJun 11, 6:59 AM
34.12%chance
3401
OptionVotes
1393
723
Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2041?
Jul 14, 11:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
61.17%chance
2255
OptionVotes
1255
797
Will there be an FDA approved medication to lower lp(a) by the end of 2027?
Jan 4, 1:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.4%chance
6216
OptionVotes
1049
953
Will Arketamine promote a greater anti-depressant effect than Esketamine?
Apr 17, 11:24 PMApr 24, 11:24 PM
56.27%chance
666
OptionVotes
946
945
Will the FDA publicly accept a multi-condition geroscience endpoint as sufficient to establish efficacy before 2031?
Jul 14, 11:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.44%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
952