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Top stories

Savannah Bananas Play Two Sold-Out Banana Ball Games at Rate Field, Broadcast on TruTV and HBO Max

Savannah Bananas Play Two Sold-Out Banana Ball Games at Rate Field, Broadcast on TruTV and HBO Max

Authors

9

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Rate Field

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.42%chance

277044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7798

3832

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

How will presidential historians rank Biden relative to other past presidents?

Jul 7, 5:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

293225

OptionProbability

21-25

16-20

11-15

26-30

31-35

Other

36-40

6-10

1-5

41-45

38

21

10

10

8

6

3

2

1

1

Will Bitcoin be carbon-neutral by 2030?

Jul 5, 7:56 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.93%chance

223199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2485

402

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?

Feb 17, 3:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.81%chance

311250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

711

Which presidents will become more highly rated by presidential historians between 2021 and 2025?

Jul 8, 5:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

13977

OptionProbability

William J. Clinton

George H. W. Bush

Ulysses S. Grant

George W. Bush

Barack Obama

John F. Kennedy

Andrew Jackson

Franklin D. Roosevelt

Ronald Reagan

Lyndon B. Johnson

Jimmy Carter

Thomas Jefferson

Woodrow Wilson

Harry S. Truman

Richard M. Nixon

Donald J. Trump

Herbert Hoover

Theodore Roosevelt

69

60

50

50

45

44

44

38

35

30

30

29

21

20

17

12

7

7

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11292

OptionProbability

China will dominate the global economy.

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

72

63

59

44

5

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

ANY safe-to-visit country refuses gender-neutral passports by 2040

Mar 26, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

467

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 15, 2025
Aug 15, 2025
Chicago
Sports
United States
Savannah Bananas Play Two Sold-Out Banana Ball Games at Rate Field, Broadcast on TruTV and HBO Max
Authors
9
10 months ago

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