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Prediction markets for Reading

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

23.49%chance

18021021808

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17864

9273

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2025?🧠🕵️

Jun 20, 9:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.29%chance

13917350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5017

1361

Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️

Jul 10, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.91%chance

10111439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1773

1294

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before June 5, 2026? [read description]

May 31, 2:08 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

8.65%chance

178964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3250

308

Will the US win the war against the Houthis in a year? (Read description)

Apr 10, 4:02 AMApr 10, 4:02 AM

32.41%chance

196269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1449

698

If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?

May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.98%chance

955648

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1951

1524

An attempt to fix the "Will this close above 50%" market. (READ DESCRIPTION)

Jul 19, 8:37 PMSep 1, 3:59 AM

40%chance

74824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

What books will I enjoy reading?

Jun 11, 12:00 AMJun 18, 6:59 AM

64400

OptionProbability

The Singapore Story

The Diamond Age

Right Concentration (Leigh Brasington)

The Agony of Eros

The Screaming Plague of Ash

The Diceman

100

80

75

70

59

56

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

When will the first AI Mind Reading technology be used in a legal or policing context?

Dec 1, 9:11 PMDec 12, 9:10 PM

40%chance

111324

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1035

789

Will we be able to read AIs minds in 2030?

Mar 24, 5:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.01%chance

31851

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1249

875

Will reading in the schools be optional by 2060?

Dec 22, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.81%chance

17836

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

895

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