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Reading News

    Prediction markets for Reading

    OptionProbability

    Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

    Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

    Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

    Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

    Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

    Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

    Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

    Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

    Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

    Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

    Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

    Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

    Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

    Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

    Fold a paper airplane

    Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

    Make correct Truchet tiles

    Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

    Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

    1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

    Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

    Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

    teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

    Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

    Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

    Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

    Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

    Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

    Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

    Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

    Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

    independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

    Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

    Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

    Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

    Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

    Kill everyone - Liron

    Faster than light travel

    voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

    100

    100

    92

    90

    87

    87

    85

    85

    84

    84

    73

    72

    71

    70

    68

    62

    59

    53

    47

    46

    45

    43

    40

    36

    33

    30

    21

    20

    17

    15

    9

    9

    9

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1930

    1219

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1378

    726

    Will an LLM directly read Ghost Font by EOY 2027?

    Jul 11, 2:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    66.71%chance
    101695

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1416

    706

    OptionProbability

    NO

    YES

    1035

    789

    MLB gets salary cap before next-next season? [READ DESCRIPTION]

    Nov 9, 7:48 AMApr 14, 11:59 PM
    30.13%chance
    171162

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1523

    657

    Will an LLM directly read Ghost Font by EOY 2026?

    Jul 11, 2:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    33.34%chance
    131069

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1414

    707

    Will reading in the schools be optional by 2060?

    Dec 22, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    34.94%chance
    171016

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1068

    837

    Will reading in the schools be optional by 2045?

    Nov 12, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    19.23%chance
    16845

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1226

    917

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