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Prediction markets for Reading
What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
Jul 20, 4:26 AMJul 20, 4:15 AM
31575479
OptionProbability
100
100
92
90
87
87
85
85
84
84
73
72
71
70
68
62
59
53
47
46
45
43
40
36
33
30
21
20
17
15
9
9
9
7
6
5
4
3
2
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
88.92%chance
12755508
OptionVotes
1879
1543
Will there be a very reliable way of reading human thoughts by the end of 2030? 🧠🕵️
Jul 10, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30.75%chance
10311582
OptionVotes
1930
1219
If Rational Animations invites viewers to read LessWrong in a video, how many new users will join LessWrong as a result?
May 4, 10:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
54.74%chance
965688
OptionProbability
1903
1563
AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?
May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.5%chance
534616
OptionVotes
1378
726
OptionVotes
1416
706
When will the first AI Mind Reading technology be used in a legal or policing context?
Dec 1, 9:11 PMDec 12, 9:10 PM
40%chance
111324
OptionProbability
1035
789
MLB gets salary cap before next-next season? [READ DESCRIPTION]
Nov 9, 7:48 AMApr 14, 11:59 PM
30.13%chance
171162
OptionVotes
1523
657
OptionVotes
1414
707
OptionVotes
1068
837
OptionVotes
1226
917
Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION]
Dec 25, 1:31 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
38.74%chance
15602
OptionVotes
1457
709
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