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Prediction markets for Russian Federation

Which country will win IMO 2026?

Jul 24, 2:00 AMJul 20, 4:00 PM

93969

OptionProbability

🇨🇳 People's Republic of China

🇷🇺 Russian Federation

🇺🇸 United States of America

🇰🇷 Republic of Korea

Other

80

9

8

2

2

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

Jan 18, 12:13 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

17.66%chance

443027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

896

Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?

Jan 16, 1:30 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

28.13%chance

342872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

795

Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?

Aug 15, 7:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.85%chance

312192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1821

840

Will Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?

Aug 7, 7:28 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

7%chance

252041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

833

Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2050?

Sep 23, 10:15 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

301820

OptionProbability

Other

Russian Federation

United Kingdom

Spain

India

United States of America

Canada

People's Republic of China

Brazil

31

26

15

9

6

5

4

3

2

Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030

Jan 18, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.99%chance

281225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

918

Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2030?

Sep 23, 10:14 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

27904

OptionProbability

Other

Russian Federation

India

People's Republic of China

United Kingdom

United States of America

Canada

Spain

Brazil

39

25

17

7

5

3

2

2

1

Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2100?

Sep 23, 10:15 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

11525

OptionProbability

Russian Federation

Other

United Kingdom

People's Republic of China

United States of America

Canada

Spain

India

Brazil

48

17

10

8

7

3

3

2

1

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.32%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

113

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.04%chance

3170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2061

1942

Will Alexey Guzey become a Hero of the Russian Federation by EOY2060?

Sep 21, 6:50 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM

25.81%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

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