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Prediction markets for Russian Federation
OptionProbability
79
12
6
2
1
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
Jan 16, 1:30 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM
23.32%chance
383217
OptionVotes
1115
970
Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?
Aug 15, 7:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
7.88%chance
353182
OptionVotes
2406
781
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
Jan 18, 12:13 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM
17.66%chance
453031
OptionVotes
1233
896
Will Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?
Aug 7, 7:28 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
7%chance
252041
OptionVotes
2145
833
Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
61884
OptionProbability
49
21
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
15
Events in Russia within a year after Russia-Ukraine war ends [add answers]
Aug 9, 10:26 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM
121867
OptionProbability
58
51
42
42
40
39
38
38
37
36
34
31
30
24
Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2050?
Sep 23, 10:15 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
311831
OptionProbability
31
25
15
8
7
5
5
3
2
Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
Jan 18, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.28%chance
291229
OptionVotes
1185
922
Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2030?
Sep 23, 10:14 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
27908
OptionProbability
40
25
16
7
5
3
2
2
1
Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
12.32%chance
8296
OptionVotes
263
113
Will Alexey Guzey become a Hero of the Russian Federation by EOY2060?
Sep 21, 6:50 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM
25.81%chance
370
OptionVotes
170
59
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