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Prediction markets for Russian Federation
OptionProbability
88
6
4
1
1
Will Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?
Aug 7, 7:28 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
2.53%chance
287107
OptionVotes
5225
701
Which Russian regions will hold referendums and declare independence from the Russian Federation by 2040?
Oct 17, 10:23 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM
125404
OptionProbability
45
31
15
15
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
Jan 16, 1:30 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM
19.34%chance
424081
OptionVotes
1171
1061
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
Jan 18, 12:13 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM
10.03%chance
473841
OptionVotes
2043
772
Events in Russia within a year after Russia-Ukraine war ends [add answers]
Aug 9, 10:26 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM
131872
OptionProbability
58
51
42
42
40
39
38
38
37
36
34
30
30
24
Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2050?
Sep 23, 10:15 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
351860
OptionProbability
31
24
16
8
7
5
5
3
1
Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
Jan 18, 5:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
13.27%chance
321635
OptionVotes
1591
847
Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2030?
Sep 23, 10:14 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
27908
OptionProbability
40
25
16
7
5
3
2
2
1
Which of these countries will have regions declare and gain recognised independence by the end of 2100?
Sep 23, 10:15 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM
11641
OptionProbability
44
15
11
10
8
7
3
2
1
Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
15.5%chance
10368
OptionVotes
215
121
Will Alexey Guzey become a Hero of the Russian Federation by EOY2060?
Sep 21, 6:50 PMSep 29, 3:59 AM
27.11%chance
472
OptionVotes
164
61
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