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Rwanda News

    Prediction markets for Rwanda

    World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027

    Jun 25, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    8914816

    OptionProbability

    Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

    ≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

    DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

    Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

    Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days or peace deal is signed)

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

    Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

    Donald Trump remains President of USA

    Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

    A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

    ≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

    Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

    Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

    North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

    Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

    China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

    A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

    Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

    A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

    A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

    Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

    Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

    An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

    Sudanese Civil War ends

    A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

    Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

    A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

    Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

    A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

    A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

    Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

    At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

    At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

    Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

    Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

    Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

    Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

    China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

    A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

    Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

    A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

    Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

    Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

    Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

    United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

    The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

    Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

    The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

    The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

    1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

    Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

    The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

    Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

    Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

    China invades Taiwan

    Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

    Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

    Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

    Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

    Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

    Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

    160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

    Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

    Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

    Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

    United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

    Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

    Humans will extinct

    100

    100

    100

    94

    87

    86

    85

    85

    81

    73

    72

    72

    69

    68

    67

    66

    64

    63

    61

    61

    57

    55

    55

    55

    55

    52

    51

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    49

    48

    46

    45

    45

    42

    42

    41

    41

    41

    38

    37

    37

    36

    36

    35

    35

    35

    35

    34

    34

    33

    32

    32

    32

    31

    28

    27

    27

    25

    25

    22

    20

    19

    18

    16

    14

    13

    12

    12

    12

    8

    8

    7

    6

    5

    4

    4

    1

    OptionProbability

    North Korea

    Tuvalu

    Kiribati

    Other

    Ukraine

    Syria

    Haiti

    Israel

    Russia

    Libya

    Belarus

    Kenya

    Serbia

    South Korea

    South Africa

    Nepal

    Kuwait

    Georgia

    Yemen

    The Maldives

    Somalia

    Myanmar

    DR Congo

    Rwanda

    Burundi

    Tanzania

    Uganda

    Northern Ireland

    China

    (duplicate, resolves NO)

    South Sudan

    Armenia

    Eritrea

    Republic of Moldova

    12

    12

    11

    10

    8

    6

    5

    5

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    South Africa

    Morocco

    Egypt

    Austria

    Other

    Japan

    USA

    New Zealand

    UAE

    French Polynesia

    Mexico

    France

    United Kingdom

    Saudi Arabia

    Australia

    Portugal

    Tanzania

    Switzerland

    Spain

    China

    Bahamas

    US Virgin Islands

    St Kitts and Nevis

    Mauritius

    Norway

    Argentina

    Canada

    Hondouras

    Brasil

    Italy

    Kongo

    Uganda

    Rwanda

    Israel

    Algeria

    Benin

    Ghana

    Nigeria

    Cameroon

    Germany

    Jamaica

    25

    10

    8

    8

    8

    5

    4

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Demi Vollering

    Other

    Kasia Niewiadoma

    Kim Le Court Pienaar

    Pauline Ferrand-Prevot

    Anna van der Breggen

    Elisa Longo Borghini

    Liane Lippert

    Lotte Kopecky

    24

    21

    12

    10

    8

    7

    7

    6

    6

    Will the 2025 UCI Road Cycling World Championships happen in Rwanda?

    Jan 30, 8:05 AMDec 1, 5:59 AM
    84.52%chance
    112458

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2337

    428

    OptionProbability

    Yemen: Sana’a

    Other

    Fiji: Suva

    Taiwan: Taipei

    Estonia: Tallinn

    Moldova: Chișinău

    Rwanda: Kigali

    Ramallah

    Kiev

    Armenia: Yerevan

    Belarus: Minsk

    Lithuania: Vilnius

    Latvia: Riga

    Haiti: Port-au-Prince

    USA: Washington DC

    Russia: Moscow

    Ethiopia: Addis Ababa

    DRC: Kinshasa

    Georgia: Tbilisi

    Iraq: Baghdad

    Venezuela: Caracas

    Afghanistan: Kabul

    Myanmar: Naypyidaw

    North Korea: Pyongyang

    Iran: Tehran

    Nicaragua: Managua

    Warsaw, Poland

    Beirut, Lebanon

    Jerusalem

    Eritrea: Asmara

    Syria: Damascus

    Somalia: Mogadishu

    South Sudan: Juba

    Khartoum, Sudan

    Niger: Niamey

    71

    6

    5

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Bosnia and Herzegovina (reopen)

    Iceland (reopen)

    North Macedonia (reopen)

    Kenya

    Rwanda

    Algeria

    Jamaica (reopen)

    Bolivia (reopen)

    Belize

    Cambodia

    Belarus (reopen)

    Russia (reopen)

    Iran (reopen)

    Iraq (besides US military base)

    Madagascar

    Cameroon

    Greenland

    Bangladesh

    Bhutan

    Vatican City

    Afghanistan

    59

    59

    59

    57

    56

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    41

    40

    35

    34

    34

    34

    27

    17

    17

    7

    2

    OptionProbability

    YES signed, NO not actively implemented by December 31st

    NO, not signed, NO not actively implemented by December 31st

    YES signed, and YES actively implemented by December 31st

    38

    33

    33

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Rwanda

    South Africa

    Egypt

    Ghana

    Burundi

    51

    16

    9

    8

    8

    8

    OptionProbability

    Critically Endangered

    Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct in the Wild)

    Other

    Critically Endangered (Possibly Extinct)

    New Conservation Status

    No Assessment for Taxonomic Reasons

    Endangered

    Extinct in the Wild

    Not Evaluated

    Data Deficient

    Least Concern

    Near Threatened

    Vulnerable

    Extinct

    46

    9

    9

    8

    6

    6

    4

    4

    4

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    132

    76

    OptionProbability

    Grenada

    Armenia

    Phillipines

    Mongolia

    Taiwan

    Morocco

    Vietnam

    Estonia

    Rwanda

    Burundi

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    45

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