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San Mateo News

    Prediction markets for San Mateo

    Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket

    Apr 13, 8:46 PMApr 19, 5:59 AM
    3818556

    OptionProbability

    Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026

    Will I still have grok in my car, through mid 2026

    Will I will be able to get my Tesla model Y 2023 to automatically back out of my driveway to the side of the road by mid 2026 (without me in it)

    Will I be able to drop my car at the entrance to a garage and have it park by mid 2026 (possibly out of sight lines) (without me in it)

    I'll see an Optimus or other Tesla robot in San Mateo CA in public not at the dealership by mid 2028

    US Customer takes delivery of Cybercab with no steering wheel by end of 2026

    Will I be able to use a non xAi model in the car, via same mechanism as grok, by mid 2026

    Will there be any conditions where I'm able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, on a public road by mid 2026?

    Max configurable speed for self driving will be above 85 by mid 2025

    Tesla robotaxi rideable in SF by the public by mid 2025

    I'll be able to call a Waymo to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

    I'll be able to call a fsd Tesla vehicle to my house in San Mateo by mid 2025

    100

    96

    58

    48

    28

    20

    16

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    3 Bees Coffee

    Curry Up Now

    Pokeatery

    B Street Books

    Daeho kalbijjim

    McGovern's

    Philz Coffee

    Sushi Yoshimizu

    Saigon City

    Takahashi Market

    New York Pizza

    Izakaya Mai

    Mortar & Pestle Bar

    O'Neills Irish Pub

    Pacific Catch

    Gyu-Kaku

    Tomatina

    Himawari

    Pausa

    Pancho Villa

    47

    36

    36

    36

    34

    34

    29

    29

    29

    29

    28

    28

    27

    25

    25

    23

    23

    17

    16

    11

    OptionProbability

    April 1 2027, Later, or never

    Q4 2026

    Q1 2027

    Q3 2026

    2023

    Q1 2024

    Q3 2024

    Q4 2024

    Q1 2025

    Q2 2025

    Q3 2025

    Q4 2025

    Q1 2026

    Q2 2026

    Q2 2024

    64

    19

    3

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    2027

    2028

    2026

    Later or never

    2029

    2025

    2024

    2023

    36

    32

    19

    5

    4

    2

    1

    0

    OptionProbability

    I recently started putting up flyers around. Will at least one person join discord cause of these, directly, not because of any other reason, within a week? By eod Jan 16

    I submitted a flyer to the library admin office for approval. Will it be up by Thursday noon?

    Will I hear from the library by Jan 16 via email or other, or flyer is up?

    Will we have 10+ people this year at a meeting?

    Well at least five people wrote and submit stories for the March event?

    Will at least 1 member besides me join manifest 2024? There are some leads

    Will we have 11+ at a meeting by mid 2025?

    Will at least 3 people read Neuromancer (in addition to me) by EOY 2024 as we plan?

    By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times publish a novel? Self publishing okay

    By 2030 will anyone who ever was a regular member at least two times win a fiction or sci-fi award?

    Will we have a new author special guest by EOY 2024? (We already had Richard Ngo once!)

    Will any past/future/present members excluding me be published online in a "real" magazine (not completely self-published) such as lightspeed? by mid 2026

    Will Richard Ngo win a major scifi award (Hugo, Nebula, Philip K Dick, or other with prize 20k or more by mid 2031

    Will someone successfully have us read, approvingly, an AI story without knowing

    Will someone discovering us via flyer show up at a meeting by mid year?

    Will the library deny me initially, which I'm going to push them on to find out?

    Will I have to escalate the situations with legal threats to get us on the bulletin board in the San Mateo library?

    Will someone else submit a flyer design which is better than my primitive one?

    Will at least one person show up in person via this market or Manifold, by mid year?

    Will at least two semipermanent members be found via flyers by mid year?

    Will we have 20+ this year?

    Will we have a meeting in a cafe or other commercial spot by mid year?

    Will we meet in the library at least once?

    Will two people who met at scifi date for at least a month this year?

    Will I ever meet someone in person from the OTHER San Mateo sf and fantasy writing group?

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    San Mateo Restaurant Death Market - next to die?

    Nov 19, 1:43 PMNov 25, 7:59 AM
    240

    OptionProbability

    B Street Books

    3 Bees Coffee

    Pokeatery

    O'Neills Irish Pub

    Philz Coffee

    Curry Up Now

    Mortar & Pestle Bar

    New York Pizza

    Izakaya Mai

    Daeho kalbijjim

    Himawari

    Pacific Catch

    Gyu-Kaku

    Pausa

    McGovern's

    Tomatina

    Pancho Villa

    Sushi Yoshimizu

    Saigon City

    Takahashi Market

    27

    6

    6

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

    OptionProbability

    Pokeatery

    3 Bees Coffee

    O'Neills Irish Pub

    Philz Coffee

    Curry Up Now

    Mortar & Pestle Bar

    New York Pizza

    Izakaya Mai

    Daeho kalbijjim

    Himawari

    Pacific Catch

    Gyu-Kaku

    Pausa

    McGovern's

    Tomatina

    Pancho Villa

    Sushi Yoshimizu

    Saigon City

    B Street Books

    Takahashi Market

    12

    11

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    86

    58

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    75

    65

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    100

    100

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