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Prediction markets for Silicon Valley
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
96
95
89
87
85
85
80
79
78
76
75
75
73
73
72
72
72
72
71
65
64
64
63
63
62
62
60
57
56
56
55
55
55
54
52
51
50
50
50
47
46
45
45
44
44
41
40
39
39
39
39
39
38
37
37
36
36
34
34
33
33
33
33
32
32
32
32
31
31
31
31
30
28
27
26
25
23
23
23
21
21
21
20
18
18
15
15
14
13
12
11
10
10
10
8
8
7
6
6
6
3
2
2
0
0
Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?
Aug 27, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
24.05%chance
11911172
OptionVotes
1974
1824
Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2050?
Jan 7, 11:36 PMJan 13, 4:59 AM
62.86%chance
482897
OptionVotes
1212
837
What will be the 'classic' episodes on the 80,000 Hours podcast from 2023?
Apr 6, 3:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22711
OptionProbability
45
45
45
45
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
38
38
38
38
37
37
35
35
34
34
34
Will a Silicon Valley company be the target of a domestic terrorism attack by end 2025?
Nov 22, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
9.8%chance
181361
OptionVotes
1793
844
Will a magazine publish a +8000 word piece about the Silicon Valley Bank saga?
Mar 13, 9:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
44.74%chance
16966
OptionVotes
1365
444
Will Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2060?
Feb 4, 3:15 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
51.41%chance
37965
OptionVotes
1252
636
Will the new silicon valley tech city incorporate the windows background hill?
Aug 28, 11:35 PMJan 3, 7:59 AM
7.24%chance
11952
OptionVotes
1552
878
Will over 100,000 people live in the "City Built From Scratch" by "The Silicon Valley Elite" in Solano County in 2030?
Aug 25, 10:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
5.27%chance
18917
OptionVotes
1641
919
Will a TV show or mini-series be made about the Silicon Valley Bank saga?
Mar 13, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26%chance
4105
OptionVotes
195
95
Will a movie be made about the Silicon Valley Bank saga?
Mar 13, 9:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
42.43%chance
8102
OptionVotes
197
183
Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?
Nov 20, 8:07 AMDec 31, 12:58 PM
47.83%chance
110
OptionVotes
256
236
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