Simón Bolívar Room News

YES

Gene Editing Therapies

Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases

Human-level AGI

Regenerative Medicine

Brain-Computer Interfaces

Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile

Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles

Bioprinting

Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³

Solar panels with 40% efficiency

Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat

Space-Based Manufacturing

Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat

Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases

Quantum Computing Applications

Seafloor Mining Robots

Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)

Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars

Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships

A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years

Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer

Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure

Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery

Joywire

Britain finishes HS2

City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks

Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities

Commercial asteroid mining

Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew

Lunar Bases

Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)

Nuclear Thermal Rockets

Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure

Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation

Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities

Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors

Fusion Drives

Commercial fusion power

Mars Base

Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol

Orbital Habitats

Direct Cognitive Collaboration

Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)

Changing the height of an adult at will

Cryonics with Successful Revival

Commercial satellite to ground power transmission

Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months

Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use

Changing a person's race at will

Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories

Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue

Human sex change at chromosome level

Human Mind Uploading

Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids

Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells

A skyhook space structure in LEO

Vacuum Airships

Antimatter bombs

Time travel to the future

Commercial cold fusion

Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light

Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms

1% Dyson sphere coverage

Space-to-Earth power stations

Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)

Space Elevator

Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)

Faster then Light Propulsion

UK has a queen again

USA adds 52nd state

President with Green Eyes elected

Room temperature superconductor discovered

24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th

Olympics hosted in Japan again

ChatGPT 10 releases

RSA-2048 cracked

Crewed mission to Phobos

Harlem Globetrotters lose again

2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases

Batman enters the public domain

The Beatles music enters the public domain

Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar

19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th

Norway Bans Whaling

African company or country lands on moon

Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B

Olympics hosted in Africa

Japan Bans Whaling

Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M

Longest suspension bridge record broken

Pokemon Card sells for $10M

First hispanic USA president

End support date for Windows 12

Pickleball in the Olympics

Team Fortress 3 releases

Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle

ChatGPT 7 releases

human dies on the moon

Grand Theft Auto 7 releases

The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake

The first $10T market cap company

USA Adds 51st state

USA fully ends embargo on Cuba

Superman enters the public domain

Iceland Bans Whaling

The version after Windows 12 releases

Centennial Lightbulb burns out

Underwater hold breath world record broken

Bitcoin reaches $200K USD

China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict

Destiny retires from regular streaming

Bugs Bunny enters public domain

Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds

Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time

Peppa Pig ends

EU reaches 30 member states

First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)

Windows 11 end support date

Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases

India hosts the Olympics

Human walks on mars

Blood Meridian movie release

marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA

Star Citizen releases or company ceases

Family Guy ends

Civilization 8 releases

Kingdom Hearts 4 releases

First female USA president

Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again

ChatGPT 6 releases

South Park ends

Manifold reaches 20K MAU

1500 Pokemon Released

Simpsons ends

Xi no longer in power in China

First Trillionaire (USD)

Chicago ends on Broadway

1300 Pokemon Released

Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out

Manifold reaches 40K MAU

USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched

Trump Dies

Another MLB perfect game pitched

James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases

Human walks on moon again

Book of Mormon ends on Broadway

Price of gold hits $5000/oz

Putin no longer in power in Russia

Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken

Bitcoin reaches $150K USD

One piece manga ends

a USA president impeached again

Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases

Human runs official marathon under 2h

Skibidi Toilet ends

Half Life 3 releases

Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire

Shrek 5 releases

Sagrada Familia Church completed

Grand Theft Auto 6 releases

The first $5T market cap company

Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)

USA discontinues or changes penny coin

Death Stranding 2 releases

First $100B revenue media franchise

New Pope after Francis

Civilization 7 releases

Bitcoin reaches $100K USD

Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less

Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship

Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water

Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour

Use tap water instead of fancy RO water

put butter into it

Toast the bread

Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need

Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)

Bake it with your best friend.

Bake for 5 more minutes

Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.

Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast

Serve the bread hot

Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min

Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.

Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter

Improve the bread

Bake for 15 more minutes

Use sourdough instead of yeast

Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread

Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance

Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.

3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour

Autolyse 20 minutes

Make the bread taste good

Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.

Do a second rise

Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread

Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".

Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top

Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞

Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

replace 10% of flour with farina bona

Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake

Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)

Add slurs to it

Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it

Watch the video

Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread

Make banana bread

Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through

Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.

If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.

Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h

Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face

Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0

Throw the bread at a telescope

Cut bread into loaves before serving

Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving

Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you

Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.

Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran

Add garlic

Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option

Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake

Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.

Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)

Let dough sit 48 hrs

Increase water by 50 g

While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana

Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency

Use a convection oven/setting

Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug

Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.

Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.

Brush on an egg wash

Make the bread great again

Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)

Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)

Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video

Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread

Make the bread edible then throw it in

Drink vodka while eating the bread

Do FOLDED

Quit Manifold into the bread.

Kill the bread into Manifold.

Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.

Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.

Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.

Add a tablespoon of sugar

it needs more salt

Bake one more minute

Strawberry jelly filling

Add caffeine to the bread

Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon

Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread

Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)

Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.

Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.

Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price

Bake vegimite into it.

Only use tap water from specifically New York City

Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread

Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread

Make all of the ingredients from scratch.

Wear a suit while baking the cake.

Use lemonade instead of water.

Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread

Half yeast

Replace salt with sugar

Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.

A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.

Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available

Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.

Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture

Only buy ingredients from 7/11.

Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.

Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.

Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.

Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.

Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)

Quadruple salt

Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder

Bake your social security number into it.

Bake one fewer minute

Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.

Bake for 5 fewer minutes

Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.

Test/filter the water for heavy metals

Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating

Eat the bread in front of the White House.

Implement all options that resolved NO

Make the bread inedible then throw it out.

Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump

Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump

Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.

make the bread bounce

Bake vodka into it

Implementing every element listed below.

Just make donuts instead

Bake it in an easy bake kids oven

Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.

Use a plastic baking sheet.

Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold

Double oven temperature

Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.

Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.

Add a pinch of sugar

Light it on fire with birthday candles.

Bake it with a microwave

Halve oven temperature

Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold

Step on it

Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it

Bake America Great Again

Sacrifice a lamb

Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice

Bake in a cat and a dog

Explode it:

5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand

say 6 7 67 times before making the bread

Take a fat dump in the dough

Sit in dough 24 hrs

Replace flour with flowers

Let dough sit 24 hrs

Mix half sodium/potassium chloride

Add 2g? of baking soda

Bake in rectangular tin

Add 50g vital wheat gluten

double yeast

halve salt

Double salt

Add 2tsp olive oil

Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait

Do not mix salt and yeast in water together

Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge

Think positive thoughts before tasting

Put fork in microwave

Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread

Add 2tbsp vanilla extract

Play classical music while baking

Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven

Eat the bread with friends

Bake it in the country you were born in.

Resolve this option YES while eating the bread

Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket

Eat the bread over the course of a week.

Use 50% whole grain flour

Bake the bread with love

Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose

Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)

More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.

Resolve this option NO while eating the bread

Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)

Add 50g sugar

Add 50g honey

Swap 200ml water for milk

Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.

Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content

Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump

Add banana

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

California is wildly overrated.

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

Taylor Swift engaged

Sweden joins NATO

Death Stranding 2 out

Hollow Knight Silksong released

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

Mr Beast reaches 300M subs on Youtube

Vince McMahon OR Hunter Biden OR Alec Baldwin OR Andrew Tate found guilty of a crime

Super Bowl LIX kickoff

Sailing skill releases for runescape

Chat gpt 6 releases

Taylor Swift married

King Charles no longer king of UK

Windows 12 released

Kingdom Hearts 4 out

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

5th bitcoin halving

Haunted Chocolatier releases

twitter releases a p2p payment system to free or all premium users

manifold reaches 4000 engaged users

Star Citizen releases

someone reaches 10B profit on manifold

a twitter account reaches 300M followers for the first time

Uber or Lyft cease operating (shut down / acquired and merged / etc)

6th bitcoin halving

Bryan Johnson will still be alive when it happens

ukraine joins nato

assange extradited to usa

LK-99 or another room temperature superconductor is reproduced in a peer reviewed journal

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat

Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature

Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024? https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-wokeness-recede-significantly

Will 2023 be the hottest year on record? https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-2023-be-the-hottest-year-on-re

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking? https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison? https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri

Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison

Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the

Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n

Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm

Large Tech company announces layoffs

Israel : Hamas Ceasefire

Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)

MLB World Series won by the National League team

Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude

Pope Francis dies

Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)

USA government shutdown

New Pope

Skate 4 Release

Tesla catches fire reported by news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/

Three or more teslas catch fire as reported by the Tesla-fire website (or multiple mainstream news)

A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding

6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states

gpt 5 released

Nintendo Direct airs

bitcoin reaches a new all time high

joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video

new iphone releases

hollow knight silksong releases

spacex makes >=150 launches in 1 year, all in 2025

elon musk has another child

Dutch coalition resigns

White House goes under lockdown for any period of time

any country starts a new invasion of another country

official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)

at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023

23andMe goes private

Assassination of an African head of state

Assassination of a North American or South American head of state

grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa

commercial airline hijacking

New CEO of Twitter

there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice

Assassination of a European or Asian head of state

Chat GPT 6 releases

Trump or Biden are hospitalized for any period of time

Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2025) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) [EST] ***

Imu face reveal in One Piece

destiny talks to joe rogan

Joe Biden dies

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

Donald Trump diagnosed with COVID-19

Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel

Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce

Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone

North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI reaches 100%

H5N1 pandemic declared

Trump threatens to deport Musk

Russia : Ukraine ceasefire

AI wipes out humanity

nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)

bitcoin drops down and reaches 30k or less

Starliner program terminated

chris (strutheo) leaves Manifold and this market is resolved by the @mods

Vladimir Putin dies

Donald Trump dies

Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital

tiktok USA company sale is signed and finalized

The same city wins at least two of the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and World Series

Musk : Zuckerberg fight actually happens

Vivek Ramaswamy comes out as LGBTQ

Bitcoin hits $200k USD

MrBeast hits 500 Million subscribers

LK99 or another room temperature superconductor causes another wave of mainstream global news hype

a twitter account besides elon musk reaches 200M followers

Aberdeen Football Club are top of the Scottish Premiership table

MLB World Series won by the American League team

Jimmy Carter dies

linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year

AI + Internet

AI + Robotics

AI + Biotech

AI + weapons

AI + Computers

AI + road vehicles

AI + Medicine

AI + Brain Computer Interface (BCI)

XR + AI

Bitcoin + AI

Room temp superconductors + fusion

Robotics + space

AI + Hypnodrones

GPS + Semiconductors

Bitcoin + Robotics

Death Stranding 2 releases

Nintendo goes after Palworld legally in some way

someone reaches 5 million mana profit on manifold

Bitcoin reaches $100K

nvidia more valuable than microsoft and apple

Jimmy Carter dies

Strutheo reaches the top of the creator leaderboard

Someone with the last name 'Trump' wins a US presidential election

Manifest 2025 ends

GTA 6 is released

windows 12 released by microsoft

Volodymyr Zelenskyy stops being President of Ukraine

Joe Biden dies

king charles no longer king of uk

Taika Waititi 's star wars movie releases first trailer

Star Citizen OR Hytale OR YandareSimulator releases fully to the public

Official sub 2:00 marathon

chat gpt 6 released

Vladimir Putin dies

Lex Fridman interviews Putin

Human steps foot on the moon again

Moldova joins NATO

Kingdom Hearts 4 released

Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users at least one time

Credible reports of AGI

Woman becomes President of the United States

Ukraine's ranking on the Corruption Perception Index for all countries improves to 80th or better (chart is at the bottom of this article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_in_Ukraine)

One Piece manga final chapter and series ends

Tom Scott's THIS VIDEO HAS X VIEWS reaches 100M

George R R Martin releases ASOIAF The Winds of Winter (his next Game of Thrones Book )

Sam Bankman-Fried is released from prison

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce end their relationship by any means

China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan

Someone reaches a 2900 FIDE rating in Chess

Team Fortress 3 announced or revealed (not an unconfirmed leak)

The United States leaves NATO

assange extradited to usa

Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres

Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat

Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature

Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024? https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-wokeness-recede-significantly

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking? https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison? https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri

Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison

Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024? https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the

Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm

Will GPT-5 be released before 2025? https://manifold.markets/VictorLJZ/will-gpt5-be-released-before-2025

Glass of Thrones letdown (polished)

Watching Harry Potter 1 on airplane and rewinding and quoting over and over the meme wizard chess section

Quick dialog sketch: "Oh my gosh a black cat, we're going to have so much bad luck now" "Wait you don't really believe in that kind of stuff do you?" "See look we're already fighting :("

Friend who took a long time in the bathroom

Coaching my girlfriend to queue up match highlights from another room to avoid spoilers

Spies when they accidentally bite the poison pill hidden in their tooth

Sketchy human ATM

Depression after a team I never heard of loses

Before Sunrise POV in record shop

Whatever the next clip of me doing standup is

Nervously removing a bunch of 'remove before flight' aviation tags from the counter of a helicopter tour company

Glass of Thrones letdown

Remembering that PBR was a thing

Gross side of owls delivering mail in the great hall

A compilation of OpenAI employees interrupting ChatGPT (and potentially gradually fading to a scene from terminator)

Demo of the new ChatGPT but it's way too flirty

Candy addiction hotline

Having a bone to pick with soccer players doing a “bow and arrow” celebration but letting go of the bow

Friend who thinks they're safety officer

Brainstorming how to become viral

Slytherin doing the math

Cheap Airbnb tour

American Express review

Future Me

How it feels logging in with authenticator (shot in the style of dramatically diffusing a bomb)

NFC Translation

Satire of sales ads

Saying "Damn" in front of a dam.

Every time I try to order a beer

Dreamy nonsensical philosophy shot