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Prediction markets for Smithsonian
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM
47.67%chance
8713481
OptionVotes
1050
916
Will any Smithsonian museum be closed before EOY 2026?
Mar 28, 10:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.81%chance
8206
OptionVotes
208
48
Will the Smithsonian Institute sell, destroy, or otherwise deaccession parts of its collection by the end of 2026?
Mar 28, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4160
OptionProbability
69
50
36
23
17
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2026?
Feb 4, 12:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
72.43%chance
750
OptionVotes
214
145
Will there be more than 70 Active Volcanoes at the end of 2025?
Feb 4, 12:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
66.42%chance
527
OptionVotes
137
92
Will there be more than 30 New Volcano Eruptions in 2025?
Feb 4, 12:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
62.5%chance
522
OptionVotes
123
99
Will there be more than 70 Active Volcanoes at the end of 2026?
Feb 4, 12:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
61.39%chance
418
OptionVotes
122
100
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