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Solo News

    Prediction markets for Solo

    How many citations will "Transformers as Approximations of Solomonoff Induction" have at the end of 2030?

    May 21, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    1023485

    OptionProbability

    Above 1

    Above 5

    Above 10

    Above 15

    Above 20

    Above 30

    Above 40

    100

    100

    76

    48

    40

    33

    26

    Relationship Style Stonks

    Mar 25, 9:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    5813173

    OptionProbability

    Other

    BDSM

    Power couple

    "Fun while it lasted"

    Me + *Her*

    Keynesian beauty contest

    Spinning rapidly in opposite directions

    Polyamory

    Monogamy

    Relationship Futarchy

    Human + Robot

    Enemies to Lovers

    Co-conspirators

    Philosophically incompatible

    Conjoined twinks

    Horizontal gene transfer

    borgie

    Relationship Anarchy

    Platonic

    Wild Lovers

    Friends with Benefits

    Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence

    Forever alone

    Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy

    Hive / Swarm / Superorganism

    Love triangle

    Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks

    Universal love

    merged consciousness

    Rationalussy

    Vespertine

    liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets

    Matriarchy

    Labor Union

    Socratic

    Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried

    One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)

    Just being one helluva slut

    Beard

    Paradixical

    Friends with Detriments

    NP-complete

    "I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"

    Hell's Kitchen

    Stockholm Syndrome

    London Syndrome

    Financial Domination

    The Price is Right

    Crows

    Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)

    Budget horse

    assortative

    Hubris quest

    Fiends with benefits

    Envenomation

    Polygamy

    Polyandry

    Ethical Non-Monogamy

    Unethical Non-Monogamy

    Celibacy

    Aromanticism

    Solo poly

    Open relationship

    Polyfidelity

    What's a "relationship"?

    Reflexive

    Symmetric

    Transitive

    Metamour

    Socially enforced monogamy

    Unreciprocated love

    Asexual romance

    Abusive

    "This is my emotional support Ex"

    FWB

    Enemies-To-Lovers

    Codependent

    Transference

    Monogamish

    Voyeuristic

    Hobbesian

    Romantic Mutual Suicide

    Mutuals

    Animalistic

    Human + AI

    parasocial

    Polycule

    Cuckold

    Throuple

    Boyce-Codd normal form

    Aristotelian

    I like big butts and I cannot lie

    I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon

    The Apprentice

    15

    8

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will a solopreneur billionaire emerge by 2028 year-end?

    Apr 18, 3:23 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
    19.71%chance
    447140

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1696

    732

    Will "The Hunt for Ben Solo" (or substantially similar film) be released before 2030?

    Oct 23, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    20.06%chance
    81016

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1996

    501

    Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

    Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
    62.48%chance
    25947

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1140

    739

    Will Vladimir Solovyov be the leader of Russia before 2031?

    Mar 7, 2:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    15.59%chance
    9750

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    233

    43

    🎤What will happen at the first concert on the moon or in outer space? [ADD RESPONSES]

    Feb 12, 2:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    4217

    OptionProbability

    a performer is Alive today (Feb 2024) (not a backup dancer or singer, named performer)

    a string instrument is played in person

    band is a solo act

    Audience is 10 or more people

    a brass instrument is played in person

    A non original cover song is played by another artist than the headline band

    a rap song is performed

    Bad Bunny In attendance (IN PERSON)

    elon musk in attendance (IN PERSON)

    backup dancers of some kind (virtual or in person)

    sponsored by spacex

    sponsored by spotify

    sponsored by apple music

    david bowie music or cover will be played

    will happen 2030 or earlier

    Audience is 100 or more people

    band is Three or more members

    a performer is Born 2030 or later

    stars Taylor Swift

    will happen 2027 or earlier

    74

    70

    59

    59

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    46

    46

    44

    42

    41

    38

    34

    32

    15

    Who will be the first pitcher to throw a solo no-hitter in the 2027 MLB season?

    Sep 27, 10:37 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM
    397

    OptionProbability

    NO SOLO NO-HITTER IN 2027

    Brandon Pfaadt

    Chris Sale

    Other

    Jesus Luzardo

    Tarik Skubal

    Christopher Sanchez

    Michael Wacha

    Sandy Alcantara

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto

    13

    12

    12

    12

    11

    11

    10

    8

    7

    4

    will luffy join loki before he loses or beats imu

    Apr 20, 1:18 PMApr 20, 1:16 PM
    333

    OptionProbability

    luffy and loki jump sesh

    luffy doesnt make it

    loki beats imu solo

    44

    28

    28

    Why will my solo consulting fail?

    Jul 2, 10:40 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    130

    OptionProbability

    Economy: This was a ZIRP and I can't justify my fees in a tighter environment

    Skills: I fail to stay relevant

    Skills: The logistical overhead (including taxes, LLC stuff, etc) becomes overwhelming

    AI: Supply/demand shifts such that I can't justify my fees

    Legal: I get sued and net less than $10k after legal fees and/or penalty

    Health: I get a chronic illness

    Health: I get an acute injury

    Health: I get a workplace injury (RSI or similar)

    13

    13

    13

    13

    13

    11

    11

    11

    Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

    May 29, 6:49 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM
    51%chance
    37

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    71

    69

    Whose inductive biases most closely approximate those of Solomonoff induction?

    May 19, 4:05 AM
    10

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