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Solo News

    Prediction markets for Solo

    OptionProbability

    Above 1

    Above 5

    Above 10

    Above 15

    Above 20

    Above 30

    Above 40

    100

    100

    65

    42

    40

    33

    26

    Relationship Style Stonks

    Mar 25, 9:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    5813173

    OptionProbability

    Other

    BDSM

    Power couple

    "Fun while it lasted"

    Me + *Her*

    Keynesian beauty contest

    Spinning rapidly in opposite directions

    Polyamory

    Monogamy

    Relationship Futarchy

    Human + Robot

    Enemies to Lovers

    Co-conspirators

    Philosophically incompatible

    Conjoined twinks

    Horizontal gene transfer

    borgie

    Relationship Anarchy

    Platonic

    Wild Lovers

    Friends with Benefits

    Relationship constitutional republic: people in it have systemically different levels of power and decision-making influence

    Forever alone

    Glucose guardian/splenda spender/sugar daddy

    Hive / Swarm / Superorganism

    Love triangle

    Traditional marriage of two cis straight White Christian vanilla people where the man "leads" and is 0-4 years older than the woman, with 2.5 kids (not counting any LGBTQIA+ ones) and a McMansion with 2.5 SUVs/trucks

    Universal love

    merged consciousness

    Rationalussy

    Vespertine

    liking/reacting to even their most meaningless posts and comments on social media and prediction markets

    Matriarchy

    Labor Union

    Socratic

    Partners in crime, like Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried

    One with an IPO (Intimate Partnership Offer)

    Just being one helluva slut

    Beard

    Paradixical

    Friends with Detriments

    NP-complete

    "I'll never admit to anyone that we met on Tinder"

    Hell's Kitchen

    Stockholm Syndrome

    London Syndrome

    Financial Domination

    The Price is Right

    Crows

    Single by choice (except it's other people's choice)

    Budget horse

    assortative

    Hubris quest

    Fiends with benefits

    Envenomation

    Polygamy

    Polyandry

    Ethical Non-Monogamy

    Unethical Non-Monogamy

    Celibacy

    Aromanticism

    Solo poly

    Open relationship

    Polyfidelity

    What's a "relationship"?

    Reflexive

    Symmetric

    Transitive

    Metamour

    Socially enforced monogamy

    Unreciprocated love

    Asexual romance

    Abusive

    "This is my emotional support Ex"

    FWB

    Enemies-To-Lovers

    Codependent

    Transference

    Monogamish

    Voyeuristic

    Hobbesian

    Romantic Mutual Suicide

    Mutuals

    Animalistic

    Human + AI

    parasocial

    Polycule

    Cuckold

    Throuple

    Boyce-Codd normal form

    Aristotelian

    I like big butts and I cannot lie

    I like big butts and I cannot tell the truth, how will you escape our dungeon

    The Apprentice

    15

    8

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will a solopreneur billionaire emerge by 2028 year-end?

    Apr 18, 3:23 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM
    23%chance
    446890

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1497

    786

    OptionProbability

    NO SOLO NO-HITTER IN 2026

    Sonny Gray (Boston Red Sox)

    Other

    Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers)

    Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates)

    Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers)

    George Kirby (Seattle Mariners)

    Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners)

    Trey Yesavage (Toronto Blue Jays)

    Nolan McLean (New York Mets)

    Bubba Chandler (Pittsburgh Pirates)

    Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees)

    Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians)

    Hunter Brown (Houston Astros)

    Roki Sasaki (Los Angeles Dodgers)

    Carlos Rodón (New York Yankees)

    Framber Valdez (Houston Astros)

    Luis Castillo (Philadelphia Phillies)

    Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LA Dodgers)

    Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox)

    Corbin Burnes (Arizona Diamondbacks)

    Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies)

    Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees)

    Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds)

    Cole Ragans (Kansas City Royals)

    Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners)

    Max Fried (New York Yankees)

    Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants)

    Reid Detmers (Los Angeles Angels)

    Cristopher Sanchez (Philadelphia Phillies)

    Michael Wacha (Kansas City Royals)

    Emerson Hanconck (Seattle Mariners)

    Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers)

    Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins)

    Dylan Cease

    91

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1966

    509

    Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

    Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
    62.48%chance
    25947

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1140

    739

    Will Vladimir Solovyov be the leader of Russia before 2031?

    Mar 7, 2:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    15.59%chance
    9750

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    233

    43

    OptionProbability

    a performer is Alive today (Feb 2024) (not a backup dancer or singer, named performer)

    a string instrument is played in person

    band is a solo act

    Audience is 10 or more people

    a brass instrument is played in person

    A non original cover song is played by another artist than the headline band

    a rap song is performed

    Bad Bunny In attendance (IN PERSON)

    elon musk in attendance (IN PERSON)

    backup dancers of some kind (virtual or in person)

    sponsored by spacex

    sponsored by spotify

    sponsored by apple music

    david bowie music or cover will be played

    will happen 2030 or earlier

    Audience is 100 or more people

    band is Three or more members

    a performer is Born 2030 or later

    stars Taylor Swift

    will happen 2027 or earlier

    74

    70

    59

    59

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    46

    46

    44

    42

    41

    38

    34

    32

    15

    will luffy join loki before he loses or beats imu

    Apr 20, 1:18 PMApr 20, 1:16 PM
    333

    OptionProbability

    luffy and loki jump sesh

    luffy doesnt make it

    loki beats imu solo

    44

    28

    28

    Why will my solo consulting fail?

    Jul 2, 10:40 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    130

    OptionProbability

    Economy: This was a ZIRP and I can't justify my fees in a tighter environment

    Skills: I fail to stay relevant

    Skills: The logistical overhead (including taxes, LLC stuff, etc) becomes overwhelming

    AI: Supply/demand shifts such that I can't justify my fees

    Legal: I get sued and net less than $10k after legal fees and/or penalty

    Health: I get a chronic illness

    Health: I get an acute injury

    Health: I get a workplace injury (RSI or similar)

    13

    13

    13

    13

    13

    11

    11

    11

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    71

    69

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