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Starke News

    Prediction markets for Starke

    OptionProbability

    Length is over 500 pages

    A character is burned alive

    The wait for the book is longer than for the previous 4 books combined (i.e. it is not released before 26th June 2026)

    Word count is greater than any previous book in the series

    Daenerys arrives in Westeros (Dragonstone counts)

    Cersei will cause an explosion in King's Landing using wildfire

    Jon Snow is revealed to be the child of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark

    A PoV character sees a literal kraken (excluding dreams, visions etc.)

    An Other will be sighted south of the Wall

    No new point of view characters outside of prologue/epilogue

    Lysono Maar will be revealed to be the same person as Varys the Spider

    Arya Stark will physically return to Westeros (warging into Nymeria not counted)

    There is an epilogue

    Jon Snow's dead body will be wighted by the Others

    The "Pink Letter/Bastard Letter" will be revealed as having been penned by Mance Rayder

    Young Griff will be revealed to be Illyrio Mopatis' son

    A POV character (excluding Prologue/Epilogue) has exactly 1 chapter

    Bran will witness/interact with the historical figure known as Bran the Builder during his explorations using the weirwood net

    The U.S. mass market paperback will be released in two volumes

    All living Stark children (of Ned) will survive

    The Harpy is revealed to be Galazza Galare (the Green Grace)

    A "Red Comet" will be sighted in the sky again (in the timeline proper—Bran weirwood dreams excluded)

    Daenerys will destroy the house with the red door

    Benjen Stark will be found alive

    Varys will gaslight Daenerys about her birth/lineage and accuse her of not being a Targaryen

    Jon Snow ceases to be a POV character after his resurrection

    It's published after the author's death

    A dragon dies

    Quentyn Martell is revealed to still be alive and has a POV chapter

    Littlefinger will be killed by Lady Stoneheart/The Brotherhood Without Banners

    Daario will reveal himself to be the same person as Euron Greyjoy

    Release date will be announced during 2024

    99

    99

    99

    93

    92

    90

    84

    78

    78

    74

    74

    74

    69

    66

    57

    57

    55

    50

    45

    44

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    36

    35

    32

    25

    20

    19

    17

    16

    10

    1

    0

    Who will appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

    Mar 25, 10:17 AMMay 7, 11:59 AM
    745147

    OptionProbability

    Robert Downey, Jr. (Victor von Doom / Doctor Doom, Tony Stark / Iron Man)

    Tom Holland (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Chris Hemsworth (Thor)

    Anthony Mackie (Sam Wilson / Captain America)

    Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards / Mister Fantastic)

    Benedict Cumberbatch (Dr. Stephen Strange)

    Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm / The Thing)

    Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova / Black Widow)

    Chris Evans (Steve Rogers / Captain America)

    Simu Liu (Shang-Chi)

    Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm / Human Torch)

    Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier / White Wolf)

    Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm / Invisible Woman)

    Paul Rudd (Scott Lang / Ant-Man)

    Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr / Ghost)

    Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine)

    Tenoch Huerta Mejía (Namor)

    David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov / Red Guardian)

    Danny Ramirez (Joaquin Torres / Falcon)

    Iman Vellani (Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel)

    Hugh Jackman (James "Logan" Howlett / Wolverine)

    Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner / Hulk)

    Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury)

    Dominique Thorne (Riri Williams / Ironheart)

    Benedict Wong (Wong)

    Chris Pratt (Peter Quill / Star-Lord)

    Vin Diesel (Groot)

    Ryan Reynolds (Wade Wilson / Deadpool)

    Jeremy Renner (Clint Barton / Hawkeye)

    Tom Hiddleston (Loki)

    Wyatt Russell (John Walker / U.S. Agent)

    Brie Larson (Carol Danvers / Captain Marvel)

    Letitia Wright (Shuri / Black Panther)

    Karen Gillan (Nebula)

    Tatiana Maslany (Jennifer Walters / She-Hulk)

    Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop / Hawkeye)

    Teyonah Parris (Monica Rambeau)

    Xochitl Gomez (America Chavez)

    Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter / Captain Carter)

    Pom Klementieff (Mantis)

    Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang)

    Bradley Cooper (Rocket Raccoon)

    Will Poulter (Adam Warlock)

    Don Cheadle (James "Rhodey" Rhodes / War Machine)

    Charlie Cox (Matt Murdock / Daredevil)

    Tessa Thompson (Valkyrie)

    Winston Duke (M'Baku)

    Elizabeth Olsen (Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch)

    Paul Bettany (Vision)

    Kathryn Hahn (Agatha Harkness)

    Danai Gurira (Okoye)

    Sean Gunn (Kraglin)

    Alaqua Cox (Maya Lopez / Echo)

    Lupita Nyong'o (Nakia)

    Evangeline Lilly (Hope van Dyne / Wasp)

    Seth Green (Howard the Duck)

    Joe Locke (Teen / Wiccan)

    Zoe Saldaña (Gamora)

    Dave Bautista (Drax)

    Gael García Bernal (Jack Russell / Werewolf by Night)

    Tobey Maguire (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Oscar Isaac (Marc Spector / Moon Knight, Steven Grant / Mr. Knight, Jake Lockley)

    Scarlett Johansson (Natasha Romanoff / Black Widow)

    Andrew Garfield (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Gemma Chan (Sersi)

    Kumail Nanjiani (Kingo)

    Lia McHugh (Sprite)

    Brian Tyree Henry (Phastos)

    Lauren Ridloff (Makkari)

    Barry Keoghan (Druig)

    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Simon Williams / Wonder Man)

    Ralph Ineson (Galactus)

    Angelina Jolie (Thena)

    May Calamawy (Layla El-Faouly / Scarlet Scarab)

    Jeffrey Wright (The Watcher)

    Mahershala Ali (Blade)

    Emilia Clarke (G'iah)

    Wil Deusner (Skaar)

    Kit Harington (Dane Whitman)

    Harrison Ford (Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross)

    Brett Goldstein (Hercules)

    Harry Styles (Eros / Starfox)

    Patton Oswalt (Pip the Troll)

    Don Lee (Gilgamesh)

    Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov / Taskmaster)

    95

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    91

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    90

    89

    89

    89

    89

    88

    88

    86

    84

    84

    84

    83

    83

    82

    82

    81

    81

    81

    79

    78

    78

    78

    78

    78

    78

    76

    76

    75

    75

    73

    72

    72

    72

    70

    70

    69

    69

    69

    68

    66

    66

    65

    65

    62

    59

    52

    50

    50

    48

    46

    45

    41

    41

    41

    37

    37

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    33

    32

    32

    31

    27

    24

    24

    23

    17

    10

    10

    8

    5

    Marvel megamarket

    Aug 13, 7:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    174151

    OptionProbability

    Wilson fisk gets becomes mayor

    Galactus is shown

    Robert Downey Jr is playing the main MCU Dr. Doom

    A number of street-level heroes (inc daredevil, punisher) have a team up plotline

    Battleworld is shown

    A number of child heroes have a team up

    Peter parker gets the Venom suit

    The Avengers fight the X-men

    Dr Doom is a Stark variant

    There is a large scale war with the US, New Azgard, Wakanda not all on the same side. Includes many military, non-superhero deaths

    Peter parker wears the Venom suit across 2 or more films

    Wanda controls the timelines to create Battleworld

    Tom Holland's spiderman is the anchor being of Earth 616

    Galactus eats timelines rather than just planets

    Matt will kill someone in Daredevil: Born Again

    100

    100

    93

    86

    80

    78

    68

    63

    49

    45

    39

    29

    20

    16

    14

    "The Winds of Winter" character death market

    Sep 30, 1:37 AMDec 31, 12:26 AM
    91026

    OptionProbability

    Barristan Selmy

    Stannis Baratheon

    Margaery Tyrell

    Aeron Greyjoy

    Victarion Greyjoy

    Jon Connington

    Areo Hotah

    Lady Stoneheart

    Doran Martell

    Penny

    Daario Naharis

    Euron Greyjoy

    Rickon Stark

    Petyr Baelish (Littlefinger)

    Young Griff/"Aegon Targaryen"

    Brienne Tarth

    Davos Seaworth

    Asha Greyjoy

    Cersei Lannister

    Arianne Martell

    Rhaegal (dragon)

    Viserion (dragon)

    Theon Greyjoy

    Jaime Lannister

    Jon Snow (again)

    81

    72

    69

    67

    63

    53

    53

    53

    53

    50

    47

    45

    45

    45

    41

    41

    37

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    31

    31

    20

    OptionProbability

    Jon Snow

    Tyrion Lannister

    Daenerys Targaryen

    Arya Stark

    Other

    Cersei Lannister

    Arianne Martell

    36

    24

    10

    9

    9

    7

    4

    OptionProbability

    Bellonara Otherys

    Other

    Just a simple septa

    Ashara Dayne

    Tyene Sand's mother

    Malora Hightower

    Wenda the White Fawn

    Serra Mopatis

    Lady Mellario of Norvos

    Elia Martell

    Lady Piper (wife of Quellon Greyjoy)

    Lyanna Stark

    15

    14

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    2

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    words are wind

    Blackfyre

    tragedy/tragedies

    song of ice and fire

    milk of the poppy

    glass candle

    prince who was promised

    moon blood/moon’s blood

    Tyrek

    nuncle

    dark wings, dark words

    biscuit/biscuits

    winds of winter

    Trial of Seven

    dagged sleeves

    Alicent

    Aerion

    Rhaenyra

    quorking

    Dark Sister

    radiant

    fratricide

    deicide

    sneeze/sneezes/sneezed/sneezing

    Saera

    house of the dragon

    hard-bitten

    week/weeks/weekly

    damask

    Essos

    Doreah

    rice

    turkey

    joke/jokes/joked/joking

    cute/cuter/cutest

    crocodile(s)

    anon

    faceless woman

    insipid

    slayer of lies

    there must always be a Stark in Winterfell

    delve (any form)

    Elmo

    hello

    nipples on a breastplate

    97

    92

    89

    84

    84

    82

    81

    81

    73

    69

    69

    66

    64

    57

    53

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    42

    41

    41

    41

    41

    35

    34

    34

    34

    34

    32

    30

    Is the Brumer–Stark conjecture true?

    Oct 19, 2:13 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    97%chance
    4523

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    468

    40

    Will there be Starknet L2 over TON by the end of 2026?

    Mar 3, 12:53 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM
    53.61%chance
    3176

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    112

    98

    OptionProbability

    Areo Hotah

    Other

    Samwell Tarly

    Aeron Greyjoy

    Victarion Greyjoy

    Melisandre

    Bran Stark

    Barristan Selmy

    22

    13

    12

    11

    11

    11

    11

    10

    OptionProbability

    Aegon’s Conquest (Live-Action Feature Film)

    Snow / Arya Stark Sequel (Live-Action TV Series)

    Ten Thousand Ships / Nymeria (Live-Action TV Series)

    Nine Voyages / The Sea Snake (Animated TV Series)

    The Golden Empire / Yi Ti (Animated TV Series)

    91

    66

    50

    50

    50

    OptionProbability

    Tony Stark

    Peter Parker

    Other

    No character

    Steve Rogers

    Victor von Doom

    57

    15

    10

    9

    5

    5

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