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Sustainable Development News

    Prediction markets for Sustainable Development

    Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market

    Dec 18, 5:45 PMDec 17, 6:59 AM
    15568743

    OptionProbability

    He leaves Argentina during his first term

    He travels to Chile during his first term

    He travels to Brazil during his first term

    He is photographed with Elon Musk

    A photo of him with Trump is released

    A photo of Milei with Biden is released

    His sister Karina holds an official public governmental position

    Will he publicly shake hands with Lula?

    Will Elon Musk post Milei's picture, real or meme form, as long as he's clearly identifiable?

    Heritage.org economic freedom score will be at or above the world average [Argentina 51.0, world 59.3 in 2023]

    Argentina will have improved its "corruption perceptions index" ranking [96th]; their score in 2023 was 38, higher score is better

    He comes to the US and meets the US president in the white house and a picture is released

    His salary as president is legislatively raised or lowered

    Heritage.org economic freedom score will be 60 or above [51 in 2023]

    Argentina will be at 63rd or better place in the good country index [63rd in 2023]

    Argentina will be at or better than its 2023 US news "best country" rating of 39

    Annualized inflation rate relative to 2023 will be <30%

    According to amnesty international, the poverty rate will go down [36.5% in 2022]

    There are serious news reports that he is discussing working with Elon Musk on a major project such as a new city, or a Tesla factory, or a rocket base, etc.

    Will Pope Francis or a new Pope visit?

    A sitting US President visits Argentina and is photographed with him

    He wins reelection to a 2nd term

    The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16k USD [13700 in 2023]

    The Economist data will list GDP person as above 16000 USD [13700 in 2023]

    LLM Q2: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of term, when asked from the POV of various international media outlets, what average rating will they give him?

    Argentina will have improved its "Sustainable Development Report" of 51st place

    LLM Q1: Will OpenAI's top public LLM at end of his term rate his performance at >50%?

    He travels to Bolivia

    Elon says the phrase or something similar, as a slogan or statement, or wears something with "VVLC", "Vive la libertad carajo" in english or spanish

    Victoria Villarruel leaves government and does not hold the office of vice president before end of term

    He leads Argentina to significantly begin cooperation with SpaceX

    Argentina will finish in the top 4 in the 2026 world cup

    Milei is revealed to not really be a Vegan (or just stops being Vegan)

    He sells land to a non-argentinian individual or corporation with some promises of a level of sovereignty above what is normal

    Argentina's population increases by more than 1%/year annualized til end of first term [historically, there has been approx 0.6% annual increase in the last 4 years]

    Argentina accepts some kind of Cryptocurrency for payment of taxes or gov't fees

    US Military gains any kind of base for at least 10 active duty military personnel within Argentina

    He goes incommunicado for at least a week

    Will the organ trade be legalized? (significantly legalized compared to the rest of S.America suffices)

    He marries during his first term

    He significantly changes his hairstyle during his first term

    He is impeached or removed in a process which is retroactively considered legal for at least a week

    He officially converts to Judaism

    He successfully mediates the border dispute with Chile and completely solves it

    Argentina will finish in the top 2 in the 2026 world cup

    Will he ever be TIME person of the year?

    Argentina's population ever decreases year over year during the first term

    He leaves office early from his first term, i.e. not completing the usual 4 years

    There is an assassination attempt resulting in shots fired

    He goes out of office for physical health-related reasons [independent health-related only; assassination, disappearance, quitting, or psychological reasons don't count]

    He successfully dollarizes Argentina [i.e. most people use dollars most of the time]

    Will at any time, the US have a travel advisory against Argentina at level 3 or 4 or higher? (level 1 now)

    Argentina will win the 2026 world cup

    He publicly resigns [whether real or coerced]

    The official borders of Argentina change during his term of office

    The Argentine peso will have been officially deprecated and not in legal use

    He is jailed, emprisoned, or held in state control during what was his original planned term of office

    He travels to Russia during his first term

    Argentina will declare war

    He changes the law such that he retains power longer than the usual 4 years without a new election

    He is in a serious car or motorcycle crash

    Will he abolish the central bank of Argentina?

    He has a child during his first term

    He is excommunicated by the catholic church

    He gets banned from Twitter [even momentarily]

    He is in a plane (or helicopter) crash

    He passes away during his first term before completion

    There is a military action in the Falklands/Malvinas which results in the death of at least 2 soldiers from any side

    Argentina effectively controls the Falklands/Malvinas or part of them, for at least a week

    Will Argentina join BRICS?

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    91

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    78

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    8

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    3

    3

    3

    2

    Will $Kendu reach 100B MC in next bull run?

    Sep 13, 10:15 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM
    6.45%chance
    2249681

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    33710

    1489

    In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

    Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    182065

    Which positive news will make 2025 world-wide headlines?

    Jan 4, 4:58 PMJan 11, 10:59 PM
    11879

    OptionProbability

    Space Exploration

    Technology

    Medical/Healthcare

    Fundamental research

    Geopolitics

    Environment and sustainability

    Disaster Relief / Humanitarian Aid

    Society

    Art and culture

    Human Rights

    Economy

    79

    73

    67

    65

    65

    59

    50

    50

    45

    45

    35

    What Will Be the Next Big Tech Industry Hype Cycle Thing After GPT-Enabled LLM's?

    Mar 12, 6:40 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM
    19463

    OptionProbability

    Robots

    Some As of Early 2024 Not Even Published Yet Architecture as Revolutionary as Transformers was in 2017

    Synthetic Biology / Genetic Engineering: For example, developing new vaccines, engineering proteins for sustainable fabric production, developing cell-cultured meats, plant-based meat alternatives, and engineering human immune cells.

    Quantum Computing

    86

    67

    58

    17

    Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

    Apr 21, 11:02 PMApr 29, 3:59 AM
    23.04%chance
    12329

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1089

    949

    Will SDG 1 succeed?

    Mar 25, 8:59 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    13%chance
    4215

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    353

    92

    Will a British Mach 5 Aircraft powered by a SABRE-derived engine fly before 2035?

    Jul 16, 6:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    24.89%chance
    5111

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    174

    58

    [Subsidized] In which decade will the global human population rebound/decrease?

    Jan 14, 12:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    490

    OptionProbability

    Not before 2100

    Prior to 2050

    2050s

    2060s

    2070s

    2080s

    2090s

    21

    13

    13

    13

    13

    13

    13

    Will TAG Grading overtake PSA as the biggest collectible authenticator before the end of 2025?

    Feb 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    27.59%chance
    262

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    162

    62

    Will the UK declare a special economic zone before 2035?

    May 11, 1:55 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
    57.5%chance
    345

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    116

    86

    Which international organization will formally invite MrBeast to join a global operations committee?

    Jul 27, 6:52 PMDec 31, 7:50 PM
    120

    OptionProbability

    Other

    United Nations

    World Health Organization

    International Red Cross

    World Wildlife Fund

    Greenpeace

    United Nations Environment Programme

    United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)

    World Food Programme

    United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

    International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)

    United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

    United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

    United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)

    United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat)

    United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)

    United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)

    United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

    United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women)

    United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF)

    United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

    International Labour Organization (ILO)

    World Bank

    International Monetary Fund (IMF)

    United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)

    United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS)

    United Nations Office on Sport for Development and Peace (UNOSDP)

    United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA)

    United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA)

    United Nations Office for Partnerships (UNOP)

    United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation (UNOSSC)

    United Nations Office for Sustainable Development (UNOSD)

    United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS)

    United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

    United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA)

    United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA)

    United Nations Office for Partnerships (UNOP)

    United Nations Office for South-South Cooperation (UNOSSC)

    United Nations Office for Sustainable Development (UNOSD)

    United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS)

    United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

    A better offer!

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