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Prediction markets for Taiwan
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.8%chance
940538579
OptionVotes
16049
11876
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
15.43%chance
538163185
OptionVotes
4115
1886
OptionVotes
2727
1089
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
33%chance
12913375
OptionVotes
2684
1043
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
Nov 8, 8:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.71%chance
4411812
OptionVotes
2520
1641
If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM
44.56%chance
477663
OptionVotes
1024
957
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
29%chance
426693
OptionVotes
1074
678
Will the US attack Cuba before China attacks Taiwan?
Jan 31, 4:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
63.51%chance
213973
OptionVotes
13192
7580
Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan
Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.16%chance
22378
OptionVotes
1080
788
Will the KMT gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?
Dec 23, 4:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
33
33
33
What will be the national vote share, by party, in the City Mayor and Country Magistrate elections in Taiwan in 2026?
Dec 23, 3:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
20
20
20
20
20
Will the DPP gain, hold or lose seats in the 2026 City Mayor and County Magistrate elections in Taiwan?
Dec 23, 4:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
00
OptionProbability
33
33
33