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Prediction markets for Tampere
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
94
58
54
43
42
37
31
23
22
21
18
15
15
13
11
6
6
2
1
0
0
0
Which famous people will name AI as an existential threat before 2026? [Mega Independent]
Dec 15, 7:51 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
4311820
OptionProbability
100
100
45
43
31
25
23
23
20
20
20
20
14
13
10
7
5
4
OptionVotes
5506
203
Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?
Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM
31.23%chance
142358
OptionVotes
1627
398
Luigi Mangione Federal Pre-trial proceedings Prop Bets (Add Answers)
Dec 19, 6:06 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM
122173
OptionProbability
100
100
97
79
78
53
52
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
45
45
31
31
31
27
25
22
20
20
20
18
14
11
OptionProbability
69
12
11
4
4
Government admits to tampering with Epstein prison footage by summer's end?
Jul 14, 9:46 AMSep 21, 11:59 PM
37.62%chance
23931
OptionVotes
129
78
OptionProbability
100
100
100
69
68
63
55
53
52
48
48
48
48
48
45
43
41
37
37
37
37
31
31
31
22
20
20
17
17
8
Derek Chauvin's sentence reduced due to evidence jury wasn't aware of by 2028?
Dec 24, 6:26 PMJan 2, 10:59 AM
31.7%chance
6276
OptionVotes
147
68
Who will succeed Pat Cummins as the next Test Captain for Australia?
Mar 19, 7:31 AMMar 26, 1:59 PM
5160
OptionProbability
47
35
3
3
3
3
3
3
OptionVotes
148
57
Will "Sycophancy to subterfuge: Investigating rewar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 20, 3:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
13.34%chance
150
OptionVotes
1050
992