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Tampere News

    Prediction markets for Tampere

    Luigi Mangione Pre-Trial Prop Bets (Add Answers)

    Dec 10, 4:26 PMDec 18, 5:59 AM
    8119257

    OptionProbability

    Donald Trump talks about the case

    Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

    Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

    Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

    Mangione extradited to NY in 2024

    Luigi Mangione pleads "not guilty" when first arraigned on the New York indictment against him

    A public figure calls for the death penalty

    Prosecutors seek the death penalty

    Luigi gets a marriage proposal

    Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

    Defense requests change in venue

    Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

    Polling from established firm shows more people have a positive than negative view of Mangione

    Major media outlet releases exclusive interview with Mangione family

    Defense seeks competence evaluation

    “JNOV” (or its expansion) appears in court transcripts or mainstream news coverage of the trial

    We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

    Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

    Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

    Another CEO of a publicly traded company is murdered

    Mangione is ever found incompetent to stand trial

    Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

    Mangione attempts suicide

    Suspect makes a confession

    Mangione assaulted while in custody

    Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

    Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

    Mangione represents himself in all hearings

    Mangione takes a plea deal before trial (Duplicate)

    The grand jury does not return an indictment the first time the cases presented to them

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    94

    58

    54

    43

    42

    37

    31

    23

    22

    21

    18

    15

    15

    13

    11

    6

    6

    2

    1

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Vladimir Putin

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Pope Leo XIV

    Joe Rogan

    Jordan Petersen

    Slavoj Žižek

    Giorgia Meloni

    Donald Trump

    Tom Cruise

    Joe Biden

    Xi Jinping

    Kamala Harris

    Oprah Winfrey

    Greta Thunberg

    Kazuo Ishiguro

    Taylor Swift

    Kim Jong Un

    Lionel Messi

    100

    100

    45

    43

    31

    25

    23

    23

    20

    20

    20

    20

    14

    13

    10

    7

    5

    4

    Will Trump be charged with Witness Tampering?

    Aug 15, 2:13 PMAug 16, 6:59 AM
    3.19%chance
    214990

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    5506

    203

    OptionProbability

    Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

    Government seeks the death penalty

    A public figure calls for the death penalty

    Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

    Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

    Defense files motion to suppress evidence

    Gag order imposed on case participants

    Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

    Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

    Prosecution seeks additional charges other than those in the orginal indictment

    Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice

    Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes

    Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause

    Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts

    Defense claims violation of Miranda rights

    Competency evaluation is sought by the defense

    Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity

    Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents

    We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

    Defense requests change in venue

    Mangione assaulted while in custody

    Court grants competency evaluation

    Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

    Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

    Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

    Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

    Mangione attempts suicide

    Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public

    Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

    Bail hearing results in release with monitoring

    Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point

    100

    100

    97

    79

    78

    53

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    48

    45

    45

    31

    31

    31

    27

    25

    22

    20

    20

    20

    18

    14

    11

    OptionProbability

    2025-2026

    2029-2030

    2027-2028

    2023-2024

    2031 or later

    69

    12

    11

    4

    4

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    129

    78

    OptionProbability

    Any arrests where criminal/suspect references Mangione or the case

    Pro-Mangione fan club assembles outside courthouse or at trial

    Prosecution seeks additional charges other than murder

    Defense files motion to suppress evidence

    Luigi Mangione makes or releases statement to the public

    Defense requests change in venue

    Case does not go to trial as a result of a plea

    A public figure calls for the death penalty

    Prosecution offers plea deal that becomes public

    Defense claims insufficient evidence for probable cause

    Bail hearing results in release with monitoring

    Prosecution seeks to introduce evidence of prior bad acts

    Expert witnesses publicly dispute evidence validity

    Competency evaluation is sought by the defense

    Defense formally alleges evidence tampering or planting of evidence

    Court grants competency evaluation

    Mangione reported to be in a new relationship

    Nancy Grace call for Mangione’s conviction

    Suspect makes a confession there is made public in court documents

    We learn that, at some point in time, Mangione received inpatient psych treatment

    Gag order imposed on case participants

    Defense granted a change in venue outside of Manhattan

    Anyone else charged in connection with Brian Thompson’s murder

    Mangione attempts suicide

    Prosecution alleges additional victims or attempted crimes

    Mangione assaulted while in custody

    Mangione is found incompetent to stand trial at some point

    Any member of Congress expresses specific support for Luigi Mangione (e.g. calling him a hero, saying he should not be convicted, etc)

    Mangione's legal team files for dismissal of charges with prejudice

    Defense claims violation of Miranda rights

    100

    100

    100

    69

    68

    63

    55

    53

    52

    48

    48

    48

    48

    48

    45

    43

    41

    37

    37

    37

    37

    31

    31

    31

    22

    20

    20

    17

    17

    8

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    147

    68

    OptionProbability

    Travis Head

    Marnus Labuschagne

    Nathan McSweeney

    Sam Konstas

    Cam Green

    Alex Carey

    Josh Inglis

    Other

    47

    35

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    Will Tsar Bomba be upstaged by 2100?

    Jul 30, 5:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    25.2%chance
    482

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    148

    57

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