OptionProbability
Other
Michael Ferguson (LIB)
David O'Byrne (LAB)
Madeleine Ogilvie (LIB)
Rebecca White (LAB)
79
11
7
2
1
VONC called
Rockliff leads minority government for at least 1 year
Another early state election before 2029
Second VONC Called
Second VONC Succeeds
Liberals form supply and confidence agreement in support of Rockliff
Liberals form coalition agreement in support of Rockliff
Labor forms government/Labor MP holds Premiership at any point
Labor-Green formal coalition in government (with or without formal independent support)
VONC succeeds (Rockliff ousted)
Another early state election within 1 year
100
80
66
50
34
22
17
4
0
The Northern Territory
South Australia
Western Australia
The Australian Capital Territory
New Zealand
Queensland
Somewhere Else
New South Wales
38
24
13
12
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
202
49
Russia
UK
France
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Germany
Denmark
Turkey
Portugal
Norway
Belgium
Greece
Poland
89
87
86
43
36
31
90
88
275
234
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