OptionProbability
Other
Michael Ferguson (LIB)
David O'Byrne (LAB)
Madeleine Ogilvie (LIB)
Rebecca White (LAB)
79
11
7
2
1
The Northern Territory
South Australia
Western Australia
The Australian Capital Territory
New Zealand
Queensland
Somewhere Else
New South Wales
38
24
13
12
4
3
VONC called
Another early state election before 2029
Second VONC Called
Second VONC Succeeds
Rockliff leads minority government for at least 1 year
Liberals form supply and confidence agreement in support of Rockliff
Another early state election within 1 year
Liberals form coalition agreement in support of Rockliff
Labor forms government/Labor MP holds Premiership at any point
Labor-Green formal coalition in government (with or without formal independent support)
VONC succeeds (Rockliff ousted)
100
87
66
50
48
34
22
17
0
Russia
UK
France
Italy
Germany
Spain
Poland
Netherlands
Norway
Greece
Denmark
Portugal
Turkey
Belgium
64
60
OptionVotes
NO
YES
90
88
252
248
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