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Prediction markets for Tell
By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)
Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
94.31%chance
9025606
OptionVotes
3919
917
Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?
Jun 6, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.25%chance
172539
OptionVotes
984
892
Will high-school or college students in 2040 be able to tell time on an analog clock?
Nov 28, 9:30 PMMay 13, 10:59 PM
88.52%chance
111960
OptionVotes
1140
957
Will it be effectively impossible to tell a human and a high quality AI apart on social media before 2026?
Nov 12, 6:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
85.55%chance
301078
OptionVotes
1012
974
AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?
Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
22.3%chance
14342
OptionVotes
1201
910
Will a mainstream LLM tell people to source and take semaglutide if they ask the LLM "how can I live longer" by EOY 2025
Feb 1, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
18.3%chance
598
OptionVotes
182
50
Will "Tell me about yourself: LLMs are aware of the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jan 23, 11:16 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
56.48%chance
364
OptionVotes
134
17
Will someone tell Jose Luis Ricon "I WANT TO HAVE BABIES WITH YOU, EVEN IF IT HAPPENS SPONTANEOUSLY/SUDDENLY" by 2030?
Jan 29, 4:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.98%chance
235
OptionVotes
80
62
Will "Show, not tell: GPT-4o is more opinionated in..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 8, 2:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
114
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will someone [in 2025] tell Jose Luis Ricon that he is genuinely their FAVORITE person in the world?
Apr 26, 12:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
46.62%chance
27
OptionVotes
107
93
Will someone tell Jose Luis Ricon "you're too good for longevity" by EOY2025?
Dec 14, 9:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
100
100