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NYPD Evacuates Times Square Over Suspicious Package, Finds No Threat

9 months ago

Times Square Vigil Highlights U.S. Fentanyl Crisis and New Enforcement Law

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Times Square Vigil Highlights U.S. Fentanyl Crisis and New Enforcement Law

9 months ago

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.65%chance

7321461

OptionVotes

YES

7930

4041

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

7.14%chance

1117513

OptionVotes

YES

3607

277

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.4%chance

459730

OptionVotes

YES

3533

1371

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

23.98%chance

807018

OptionVotes

YES

3197

598

When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro?

Jan 4, 3:48 AMDec 29, 11:59 PM

324811

OptionProbability

before December 28 2027 (ET)

before 31 December 2026 (ET)

before September 2026 (ET)

before August 2026 (ET)

before June 2026 (ET)

before February 2026 (ET)

before March 2026 (ET)

before April 2026 (ET)

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Jul 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.3%chance

131684

OptionVotes

YES

1380

928

What is the base of the next nice number?

Sep 19, 3:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

111509

OptionProbability

111 - 120

121 - 125

101 - 110

86 - 100

49 - 85

131 - 150

126 - 130

There are no more nice numbers

151+

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

76.93%chance

18803

OptionVotes

YES

1637

732

When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?

Jul 30, 12:14 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4167

OptionProbability

2024

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2030 or later

Conditions for Second Coming of Christ better in 2030 than 2024?

Mar 24, 5:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.01%chance

673

OptionVotes

YES

118

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Jul 21, 7:03 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Other

Simulating Time With Square-Root Space

MIP* = RE

The Complexity of Gradient Descent: CLS = PPAD ∩ PLS

Graph Isomorphism in Quasipolynomial Time

A Dichotomy Theorem for Nonuniform CSPs

Superpolynomial Lower Bounds Against Low-Depth Algebraic Circuits

An Average-Case Depth Hierarchy Theorem for Boolean Circuits

Learning Algorithms from Natural Proofs

Deciding Parity Games in Quasi-polynomial Time

A Proof of the CSP Dichotomy Conjecture

Induced subgraphs of hypercubes and a proof of the Sensitivity Conjecture

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

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Prediction markets for Times Square

Prediction markets for Times Square

Prediction markets for Times Square

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro?

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

What is the base of the next nice number?

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?

Conditions for Second Coming of Christ better in 2030 than 2024?

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

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