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Times Square News

NYPD Evacuates Times Square Over Suspicious Package, Finds No Threat

NYPD Evacuates Times Square Over Suspicious Package, Finds No Threat

16

7 months ago

Times Square Vigil Highlights U.S. Fentanyl Crisis and New Enforcement Law

US Domestic Policy

Times Square Vigil Highlights U.S. Fentanyl Crisis and New Enforcement Law

6

7 months ago

(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?

Sep 11, 9:11 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

41.65%chance

7321461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7930

4041

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

7.14%chance

1117513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3607

277

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.68%chance

387946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3651

1346

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

23.98%chance

807018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

598

Will "induced wind" power plants exist by 2050?

Jul 11, 8:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.3%chance

131684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

928

Which of Zvi's favorite NYC restaurants and bakeries will close by 1 Feb 2028?

Jan 2, 4:25 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

111654

OptionProbability

Tortaria

Hunan Bistro

Joe's Pizza (14th + 3rd)

Mighty Quinn's BBQ (13th and 7th)

Hill Country

Carlotto

Dominic Ansel Workshop

BLT Prime (74th + Lexington)

Brooklyn Bagel & Coffee Company (25th + 8th)

Thai Villa

Bhatti Indian Grill

Brindle Room

Osteria Morini

Il Buco Alimentari & Vineria

Tao Downtown

Strip House (44th + 5th)

Keste Pizza

Magnolia Bakery (Bleecker Street)

Joe and Pat's NYC (10th + 1st)

Bourke Street Bakery (28th + Madison)

Prince Street Pizza

Dominic Ansel Kitchen

Au Za'atar

Rezdora

Da Umberto

Casa Mono

Xi'an's Famous Foods (15th and 8th)

The Donut Pub (both locations must close)

Dos Toros (two closest locations must close)

Scarpetta

Via Carota

Fogo De Chao (53rd Street)

The Halal Guys (14th + 2nd)

Japonica

Fiaschetteria "Pistoia" (both locations must close)

Eataly (23rd Street + 6th Avenue)

Naya (four closest locations must close)

Katz's Delicatessen

Shake Shack (OG in Madison Square Park)

98

98

73

52

48

46

31

30

29

29

29

29

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

28

27

27

27

26

26

26

26

24

24

21

21

21

21

20

19

18

18

16

12

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

76.93%chance

18803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

732

The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026

Jan 30, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13612

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Dec 2026

Before Oct 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Feb 2026

36

28

24

18

8

4

1

When will the Antarctic sea ice extent fall below 1 million square kilometers for the first time?

Jul 30, 12:14 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4167

OptionProbability

2024

2025

2026

2027

2029

2028

2030 or later

45

17

11

11

6

5

5

Which paper will win the Gödel prize in 2026

Jul 21, 7:03 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

160

OptionProbability

Other

Simulating Time With Square-Root Space

MIP* = RE

The Complexity of Gradient Descent: CLS = PPAD ∩ PLS

Graph Isomorphism in Quasipolynomial Time

A Dichotomy Theorem for Nonuniform CSPs

Superpolynomial Lower Bounds Against Low-Depth Algebraic Circuits

An Average-Case Depth Hierarchy Theorem for Boolean Circuits

Learning Algorithms from Natural Proofs

Deciding Parity Games in Quasi-polynomial Time

A Proof of the CSP Dichotomy Conjecture

Induced subgraphs of hypercubes and a proof of the Sensitivity Conjecture

36

18

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

5

Bitcoin 4-year price cyclicality regression

Jan 23, 12:56 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

335

OptionProbability

constant

cos (2 pi t)

linear

sin (2 pi t)

49

23

15

13

Games Workshop's "The Old World" discontinued by 2027?

Apr 9, 7:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.58%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

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