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Prediction markets for USSR
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
82
80
80
80
80
80
80
77
75
74
73
72
71
70
70
68
66
65
64
64
63
63
62
62
61
60
60
60
59
56
56
55
55
54
54
53
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
47
46
45
44
43
42
42
41
41
40
40
40
38
38
35
34
34
34
31
30
28
28
27
25
25
25
25
25
24
22
22
15
10
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1778
894
OptionProbability
45
36
13
12
11
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
7
Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council in the next 5 years?
Nov 5, 3:13 AMNov 12, 4:59 AM
3.68%chance
141429
OptionVotes
2195
908
Will the head of state of [country] officially be named [title] of that country on any day in 2039?
Feb 8, 4:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
201122
OptionProbability
52
42
40
29
29
16
15
12
12
5
5
The head of state of which [country] will first officially be named [title] of that country?
Feb 8, 5:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
7742
OptionProbability
60
17
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
What will be true about the next person to win the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2026?
Oct 14, 3:26 AMNov 2, 4:59 AM
14621
OptionProbability
88
79
71
59
55
54
50
46
34
34
29
24
21
17
17
17
10
10
6
2
Will the men's Hammer Throw world record be broken by the end of 2028?
Aug 5, 7:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
23.59%chance
7240
OptionVotes
180
56
OptionVotes
145
56
Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]
Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM
48.5%chance
866
OptionVotes
163
135
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