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Top stories

France Sees 30 Indigenous Chikungunya Cases, 47 Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Cattle Amid Dengue Rise

France Sees 30 Indigenous Chikungunya Cases, 47 Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Cattle Amid Dengue Rise

Authors

36

1 month ago

France Reports 30 Indigenous Chikungunya Cases, First Dengue Cases Amid Réunion Epidemic and WHO Concern

France Reports 30 Indigenous Chikungunya Cases, First Dengue Cases Amid Réunion Epidemic and WHO Concern

Authors

29

1 month ago

Portugal Deploys Over 3,700 Firefighters Amid 45°C Heatwave; Spain Fire Warnings and France Red Alert Issued

Natural Disasters

Portugal Deploys Over 3,700 Firefighters Amid 45°C Heatwave; Spain Fire Warnings and France Red Alert Issued

Authors

8

17 hours ago

Prediction markets for Var

Will a COVID-19 variant cause a new scare and intermittent lockdowns in multiple countries by end 2025?

Jul 10, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.12%chance

548919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3415

700

Is MCU Dr. Doom a Tony Stark variant?

Jul 28, 5:23 AMNov 5, 5:59 AM

58.66%chance

262684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.2%chance

321275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

507

Will Yudkowsky and Soares' book be a NYT bestseller in 2025? under various conditions

May 15, 7:16 PMDec 31, 8:15 PM

9899

OptionProbability

Book cover is not changed

Book cover is changed

69

69

Will the Variability Hypothesis be confirmed within humans before 2035?

Jan 25, 6:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.02%chance

6720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

NCAA adds pickleball as a varsity sport before 2031

Jul 14, 7:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.13%chance

25700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

961

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

372

367

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

19.75%chance

16493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

940

Will the Premier League stop the use of VAR before 2030?

May 15, 4:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.06%chance

8183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

49

Will "X explains Z% of the variance in Y" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.21%chance

266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

764

claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?

Mar 2, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

Pickleball tournament uses variable paddle rules for mixed doubles

Oct 1, 6:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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